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Showing posts from July, 2008

Compuware Corp (CPWR)

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In light of what looks to be a developing sideways pattern in the market I have instead for today a stock to watch. Compuware Corp ( CPWR ) had featured as a newsletter pick for May 19th , and as a free pick for July 21st. It has risen 25% since May and 9% since mid-July and the current 5-day handle looks a good place to raise the prior stop price. I would also set a free stock alert for a price cross above $11.23 as this should see a run to resistance on the weekly chart: The chart shows good volume behaviour with rising volume in the advances and falling volume for declines/sideway action. There may be some concern with the lower volume for the push from $9.24 to $11.21 compared to from $6.97 to $10.42 - but a protective stop would provide the necessary protection. Lovely cup-and-handle on the weekly chart with great relative strength with respect to the S&P: Point-n-figure chart is still running from the May 16th Double Top Breakout with target of $19.50. Option buyers can lo

Bulls vacation! What vacation?

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Sterling work by buyers as a further accumulation day is registered for the rally. Once again looking at 50-day MAs for targets (with the exception of the Russell 2000 which is already there - for that look to the 200-day MA). Comments unchanged from Jul 23rd: Lovely reversal Strong gains, but how will 2,350 hold as resistance? Market needs a breather - action is still very reminiscent of March. Get the Fallond Newsletter Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Bears refuse to go on vacation / Bulls on vacation

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The day looked bad, but other than a loss of the 20-day MAs for some of the indices it didn't change much. Last week's lows are still a defensive point for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 given they mark the convergence of the breached declining resistance line and horizontal price support. The Dow is more or less set for a test of July lows given it closed inside the body of the initial reversal day. Stochastics still have room to maneuver down - reaffirming the need for a July low test: The S&P has similar concerns: Markets trading in a 'no-mans' land; too late to short, too early to buy. Expect a drift lower in this environment until the approach of support triggers short covering. Get the Fallond Newsletter Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Stockcharts.com Weekly review

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With things winding down into the holidays it was a relatively quiet week for the markets. Overbought conditions were eased somewhat, but what had the Stockcharters to say about it all? Maurice Walker opens with psycho bears: In my opinion the bears have gone psycho, for ignoring the obvious technical improvements. Many investors in the stock market are just like those movie-goers who went to see Psycho in the early 1960s, they have no idea what will happen next and they don't know how the story ends until after its too late. For many investors the stock market can bring intense feelings of horror as they experience a living nightmare. In a few weeks their porfollios will blow up in their faces. Now those of us that use technical analysis, we may not know every twist and turn in the future of the stock market, but we can know the ending. Using technical analysis we can determine when the ending of a trend has transpired. Utilizing any number of the weapons in our technical arsenal

Zignals Strategy Lab: Buy 50-day MA cross of 200-day MA - Sell 15% gain.

Latest Strategy Lab up on the Zignals Blog . -eom-

(Via VIActin) Top Finance Blogs

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VIActin has done the latest Alexa ranking for financial bloggers. I look to be holding a healthy top-25 place, but I agree with Maoxian in Alexa is flawed (I am 99% certain my ranking is because every computer I use now has the Alexa toolbar installed; when I changed computers and hadn't installed the toolbar I had no presence on Alexa - I then re-installed it and hey presto, I'm back! Unfortunately, Alexa don't show data beyond 6 months but in the olden days you would see this crash and recovery on my historical Alexa chart). If you want to rank on Alexa get the toolbar . Get the Fallond Newsletter Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

KIVA: Reloans

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Another wave of repayments are in so it's time to reloan the monies. I have selected three more recipients for this cash - if you would like to help you can purchase a Scratchback link for your site ($25 contribution made to a KIVA recipient), or make a payment through subscription to my newsletter (subscribe through the link above; also a $25 contribution to a KIVA recipient). The total number of paid/lent loans now stands at 66 . Thirty-two of these loans are active which means $800 has been raised from Scratchback links and subscription payments; a big Thank You to all of my KIVA supporters: Eng Thear , age 36, is a widow farmer and lives with three of her children. Living in Phnom Penh, she typically makes around $2 each day and is aided by her two children, who work in a garment factory. Mrs. Eng’s farm is more successful than the others because she owns a water pump and never has to worry about the weather, rain or not. The other farmers that have no water pump have to rely

Medical Equipment stamps some leadership; CryoLife

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Medical devices came to the fore of my stocks scans yesterday (the complete list can be found in my newsletter). One of my former favorites, CryoLife ( CRY ), managed to break resistance yesterday on heavier volume. Technicals are modestly bullish; MACD trigger and on-balance-volume 'buy' signals are tempered by the position of these signals below 6-month highs. Trend strength is weak (ADX < 20) so it has some work to do to build bullish momentum. The point-n-figure chart pushed an ascending triple top breakout on Wednesday with a price target of $14.50, but one could look for a measured move target to $22 (set a stock alert for $22 and $14.50; use the latter price to take partial profits and raise the stop to breakeven) Get the Fallond Newsletter Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Respectable gains on good volume

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The concerns of overhead resistance discussed yesterday appear to be no more as the Dow and Nasdaq both pushed past May-July resistance. This raises the issue of overhead 50-day MAs as upside targets. The Russell 2000 has challenged (and broke) its 50-day MA. The Nasdaq has some 100 points left to run before it encounters its 50-day MA: The S&P did well to break through what is a heavy supply area. The fact is not overbought suggests it has a good chance of going even higher. Again, 50-day MA looks a good target to aim for: Transports are nicely positioned following a confirmed double bottom. Managed an ideal test of Fibonacci support on the decline from its highs. Overbought stochastics suggests some meandering around its 50-day MA: Whatever about the short term potential in this market, the longer term bottom is shaping up very nicely. Again, January lows were an important marker for a bottom with supporting action in the March and now July retracements. Markets are in a long ter

Bullish Percents and the rally

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With last week's bounce still in effect I took a look at the bullish percents to gauge how long this may run. It was a bit of a mixed bag. While all three key bullish percent indices generated bullish signals, only the S&P breached declining resistance, as defined by closing price, to suggest it is a true bull rally. It could change today - although results from American Express (AXP) won't help, even if oil trades around $132 a barrel. The Dow finished the day bang on resistance. Will it pullback like the Nasdaq did yesterday? The S&P cleared the sharper of two resistance levels. A slower resistance line lurks some 60 points above: However, it is interesting to see the Russell 2000 continue to map out a bottom similar to how it did in March: Today's action may give more significant clues, even if there is a bit of trader's exhaustion out there following last week's capitulation. Look for prices to drift lower but hold last week's lows. Get the Fallond

Stockcharts.com Weekly review

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The birth of Isabel, child numero 2, kept me offline last week. Lots of catch up for my blog here and on Zignals . I'll start with a Stockcharts review as it's a good quick way to get a grasp of the general opinion out there. Maurice opens the week up - go read his piece on Samson the Bull (the hairy, 4-legged kind). Take home message of his tale: Bulls may get some scraps and bruises when you are blocking their path, but if you are in their way you will be stomped on by the stampede. Maurice goes on: You bears had better take heed to the message that the market is sending. The technical situation has greatly improved and on July 17 the buy signal was given. But if you bears are going to run in front of the bulls, you are going to get trampled. Not only has the technical situation greatly improved, but market breadth is now in favor of the bulls. The McClellan Oscillator is momentum indicator, and is explained in detail in John Murphy's (the founder of stockcharts.com) won

Stockcharts.com weekly review

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Another down week, another down set of Stockcharters? Just as a heads up - I used to have a top-15 Stockchart list, but it has now drifted into the quagmire of the 'long-tail'. I maintain the front-page daily and anything from page 5 is current stocks. Maurice Walker kicks the week off. I was interested to read his opinions on the ADX with respect to volatility: The VIX had a spike to 30 today which is encouraging, but when buyers bought the sell-off the VIX closed right at the 2007 broken trendline. The VXN got a spike high to 35 which is extreme territory, just as 30 is for the VIX. We continue to get whipsaws and extreme volatility. As I stated yesterday the ADX is above both DI lines on the S&P 500 and the DJIA. Until the ADX peaks, the volatility will continue. However, buyers are coming in on steep sell-offs, which leads me to believe that the MACD on the averages will soon get a bullish cross. The daily index charts continue to have rising slopes on their histogram

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