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Showing posts from October, 2019

Indices Hold Up Despite Intraday Swing

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Sellers tried to reverse the breakouts in the indices but were instead undone by higher volume buying. Indices which had broken out remained above resistance, while those still waiting remain well placed to do so. The S&P tagged breakout support on higher volume accumulation. There has yet to be a supporting breakout in On-Balance-Volume to match the breakout in price but volume rose in accumulation.

S&P Breakout

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It didn't take long for the S&P to follow the lead of the Semiconductor Index with a breakout of its own. The move was not substantial, barely registering above a 0.5% gain, but it did clear 3,025 resistance, which is now new breakout support.

Semiconductors Breakout (Again); Indices Primed to Follow.

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It was an excellent Friday for bulls with light volume the only mark against the indices. Semiconductors led the way as after much toing and froing in recent weeks the index finally made a decisive most past resistance. The breakout for the Semiconductor Index came with a solid uptick in relative performance against the Nasdaq 100, although this move should help Tech Indices follow higher.

Semiconductors Return Inside The Consolidation

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There wasn't a whole lot attached to today's action except for the Semiconductor Index. The Semiconductor Index fell back inside its prior consolidation, falling below 1,620 in a near 2% loss. The Index was able to hold on to support of its 20-day MA on a neutral doji. Relative performance turned negative but the breakout is not killed yes.

Friday's Losses Reversed But Breakouts Remain On Hold

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It was a good start to the week with Friday's losses reversed in their entirety, although trading volume was down on Friday's selling. The Semiconductor Index is closest to breaking out (for a third time) but technicals are all net bullish. It just needs to kick on after the recent back-and-forth.

Minor Losses as Semiconductors Dips Below Resistance

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Friday's selling brought with it confirmed distribution; not great, but with indices range bound the broader picture remains unchanged. Only the Semiconductor disappointed as it again was unable to follow through on its breakout. Speaking of the Semiconductor Index, while Friday's selling took it back towards its 20-day MA - reversing the breakout for a second time - but not enough to consider this a 'bull trap'.

Russell 2000 Clears 200-day MA as Indices Consolidate

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The Russell 2000 pushed above its 200-day MA as other indices had a quiet day. Although, all indices remain stuck inside their multi-year trading ranges, the Semiconductor Index is again trying to break clear. With the gain in the Russell 2000 technicals moved into a net bullish technical stance. It's still a long way from challenging trading range resistance but it has at least squeezed shorts who were perhaps banking on a support breakout in early October.

Semiconductors Breakout

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There is a potential lead out for other indices with the Semicondictor Index breaking resistance which will help the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 mount a challenge of resistance. Large Caps enjoyed higher volume accumulation as money flowed into defensive stocks. With the exception of the Semiconductor Index other indices are still range bound so again, the importance of up or down days won't become apparent until the trading ranges are breached. We will start with the Semiconductor Index. The index has breached 1,625 with a return to net bullish technicals.

Gains Stall After Positive Friday

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Again, everything is viewed through the window of a trading range and until this is breached it's mostly noise in a teacup. The S&P opened at its 20-day MA and rallied to just shy of 3,000 before it ran into trouble. The index eased back to its 20-day MA, leaving behind an inverse hammer, but not before the attempted rally was able to generate new 'buy' signals for On-Balance-Volume and Slow Stochastics

Trading Range Remain as Indices Start To Coil

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Market are shaping into small pennants/coils as last week's losses shape into a set of inside days. For indices testing 200-day MAs, the reaction bounce has now stalled as markets search for the next move. In the case of the S&P, today's reaction to the bounce has been somewhat disappointing with an inside day which failed in its attempt to challenge overhead 50-day MA resistance. Technicals have also move into net bearish territory. It looks like the next move down, but a close above the 50-day MA would likely be enough to see a challenge on 3,025.

Market Rally Runs Into Resistance

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After Thursday and Friday's gains, today saw the brakes applied with a stall in the rally. The S&P came up to resistance at the 50-day MA and even managed a recovery of slow stochastics [39,1]. There are bearish 'sell' triggers for the MACD and On-Balance-Volume, counterbalanced by an uptick in relative performance against the Russell 2000.

Sellers Put Some Distance on Prior Action

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There was a bit more impetus to today's action as sellers took another swipe at markets. Existing - broad - trading ranges remain the dominant influence but some indices are closer to dropping outside of these ranges than others. The Russell 2000 will likely see a challenge on the August 'bear trap/; if not tomorrow then probably before the week is out. Technicals are net bearish but not oversold, which suggests there is room for more downside and if a crash was to emerge then it's not going to happen until the index is oversold.

Sellers Return Again With Russell 2000 Hit Hardest

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There was another sweep lower as indices returned to, or swept aside, moving average support. Hardest hit was the Russell 2000 as it undercut both its 50-day and 200-day MAs. The index is charging towards 1,465 support with little in the way of technical support to lean on. Stochastics are at the mid-line which is historically a bounce level for stocks in bullish markets, but it would seem unlikely this will happen here.

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