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Showing posts from July, 2014

Daily Market Commentary: Bear Blitz

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Whatever tentative bullish plays were available before the start of the day were quickly put to rest by the close of business.  Where I thought the Dow might offer shorts the most reward, it was the Russell 2000 which suffered most. The Dow actually managed to close on a support level - although it probably doesn't look like it.

Daily Market Commentary: Mixed Action

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Bears got the volume, but not the action to suggest they succeeded in breaking bulls morale. The S&P continued with the channel breakdown, but finished with an indecisive 'spinning top'. Even if bears were to press tomorrow, the 50-day MA would quickly come into range as support. I suspect we are looking at a trading range, something part of a larger move higher.  However, it remains to be seen where the low of this range lies.

Daily Market Commentary: Bears Return

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The day started well (for bulls) with some early follow through upside, but it wasn't long until bears were trying their hand again. The S&P may have registered a channel breakdown. There was a close below channel support, although the day's low did not violate the low from yesterday. There was a marked rise in volume, confirming distribution.

Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Stage Afternoon Recovery

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Morning action left the Russell 2000 staring at a new swing low, and the S&P at a channel break. However, buyers returned in the afternoon to return the S&P to support and the Russell 2000 scrambling back to its 200-day MA.  Meanwhile, the Semiconductor index finished with a bullish doji on the 50-day MA. Given bears failure, bulls have an opportunity to press their advantage in the Semiconductor Index and S&P. The 608 low in the Semiconductor Index may see a test and perhaps an intraday violation, but there is a fairly decent long side opportunity available, if the 50-day MA can hold.

Daily Market Commentary: Bears Flash Intentions

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Bears made further inroads to the Semiconductor index, and Russell 2000, which delivered knock on results elsewhere.  The Semiconductor index had the worst of the action, slicing through its 50-day MA with a near 2% loss. If bulls wanted value a quick return above the 50-day MA would set up a 'bear trap' and may generate enough juice for a challenge of 650.

Daily Market Commentary: Market Pause

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Other than a slight uptick in volume for the S&P, it was a relatively quiet day. The one index which hinted at a change was the semiconductor index.  It had been trading in a sideways range which had drifted outside of its narrow, rising channel, but yesterday's close positioned it as a break of support. The 50-day MA is nearby to provide support, but with technical weakness expanding there is a strong possibility for a larger move down.

Daily Market Commentary: Watch Expanding Bearish Breadth

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While the S&P and Nasdaq have recovered strongly, supporting breadth for these indices hasn't been so glowing. For example, the Nasdaq is on the verge of a move to a new high, sitting just below the July peak, on a second day of accumulation.

Vacation Time: July 4th => July 22nd

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No posts for the next couple of weeks. Trading volume was light with tight action in Large Caps, but a little give in Small Caps. Existing trends in play until proven otherwise, anything else risks overplaying background noise. Pointers to keep an eye out for over the coming weeks: S&P remains on course to tag the 10% 200-day MA envelope (grey dashed line). Channel and/or 20-day MA support may offer pullback opportunities.

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