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Showing posts from October, 2006

Trade Ideas: NKE, TLT, FTD, EWW, CHA, RPM, IEF, ILF

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Markets failed to close yesterday with the vigor necessary to regain lost support from last Thursday. Today, markets drift in aimless fashion, but the Trade Ideas scan was showing a little stronger buying than this time yesterday; today's picks covered a time span of 2 minutes - someone appears to be buying the dips. It was a relatively eclectic mix of 8 picks; two treasury bond funds ( TLT and IEF ), a latin America Index iShares ( ILF ) and Mexico iShares ( EWW ), with a dose of China ( CHA ) and an America staple, Nike ( NKE ). The Latin America Index ( ILF ) was the only pick to manage a bullish cross of its 20-day/50-day MAs over the last 2-months. FTD Group ( FTD ) and RPM Intl ( RPM ) recently suffered bearish crosses in these MAs. In terms of frequency, the treasury bond fund, TLT , took the biscuit at 26 appearances . Long term charts of these picks look a littly iffy. There is a cup-and-handle pattern in the two treasury funds ( TLT and IEF ); use the October low for s

Trade Ideas: DPZ, KOF, NCV, BNS, EWC, IWP, ABC, AIR

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Markets (so far) have done a decent job atoning for some of Friday's losses. Whether they can regain their breakouts in the last hour of trading remains to be seen. The Trade Ideas scan showed modest buying; the 8 picks covered 5 minutes of time. There was no one dominant stock; AAR Corp ( AIR ) made the most appearances over the course of the day at 24 . Within the time span of the scan (the 5 minutes), Coca Cola Femsa ( KOF ) made 4 appearances ( 20 for the day). Canada iShares ( EWC ) and Scotia Bank ( BNS ) are working through prior bearish crosses in their 20-day and 50-day MAs. AAR Corp ( AIR ) and Coca Cola Femsa ( KOF ) were the only picks to make bullish crosses over this period. Cup-and-handle buyers can look to Canada iShares ( EWC : Buy @ $25.25; Stop loss on $24; Projected target: $30), Coca Cola Femsa ( KOF : Buy: Trigger hit if current level holds into close; Stop loss on $32; Projected target: $42) and to a lesser degree, AAR Corp ( AIR : Buy @ 20-day MA or brea

Stockcharts.com: Weekly review

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Techs made a brief move to new yearly highs, only to reverse by Friday's close. The breakout reversals won't help bulls, but there is plenty of support below. Dr. Joe leads out with some commentary: The DOW was slightly up for the week, but got hit Hard today. A bunch of Eco Data came out and it's conflicting and confusing. For instance... 'Core Consumer Prices' (big inflation factor) increased 2.3% during the third quarter (that's bad?). No, it's Good, because it was down from 2.7% the second quarter. But it's Still Bad, because for the year it's Up to 2.4% which is higher than last year. Also Above the Fed Res' Comfort Zone of 1.5% to 2.0% max. *The important 'GDP' came in low - 1.6% for the third quarter. Way Down from the 2.6% second quarter, causing skepticism about the bull continuing. However, 'Consumer Sentiment' increased from 92 to 96 - Very High. Then Goldman Sachs stated that, 'The Demand for Mother Boards is fall

Weekend Commentary from Fallondpicks.com

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Bears will have sighed some relief as Thursday's breakouts in the tech averages [ NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 ] reversed; the NASDAQ 100 suffering the additional indignation of a distribution day. Reversals were also experienced in large cap [ Dow and S&P ] and small cap [ Russell 2000 ] indices, but neither set of losses caused any significant technical damage. There is a swathe of support to look forward too - so Bears can't be rubbing their hands with the expectation of a big reversal, but buying this dip would be a risky proposition. The semiconductor index took a step back to its 50-day MA; there is a big void of support down to July lows, so further losses could be very damaging technically. The semiconductor index is also influenced by the strengthening bearish divergence of its MACD trigger line. Technically; the MACD trigger 'sell' holds for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 - but there is no change in the other technicals; the bullish divergence in the MACD o

Collective2: TMX out

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First sign of damage in the markets; important to watch is channel support across the various indices. There have been a number of false breakouts over the last couple of days for individual stocks, these should be sold - no questions asked. One such stock to close at new highs and then reverse was Telefonos de Mexico ( TMX ). After yesterday's close at a new reaction high I raised the stop to the highest reaction low (set last week). The stock hit the stop intraday, even though it finished the day a shade above such support. This closed the 400 share lot for a +$744 profit. The stock featured as a free Breakout play for September 29th opened at $25.42, following an earlier feature for my newsletter Subscribers, July 19th [$] , opened at $22.12. It was added to the Collective2 portfolio at $24.58 on September 20th . Three positions remain in the Collective2 portfolio. I see no reason to be adding new positions at this time. Collective2

Fallond / Trade Ideas / Jim Cramer : October 18 - 19th

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Two days worth of review for you. It was a mixed bag of results; for Wednesday and Thursday the market ETFs returned two positive performances ( +0.86% and +1.98% ), while my newsletter picks had the best ( +3.25% ) and worst ( -2.45% ) weekly returns for the two days. The Trade Ideas scan fell in the middle with its -1.11% and +0.76% performance. There was only one set of picks for Jim Cramer and his returned a solid +1.82% on the week. Best stock pick went to Jim Cramer's, NSC with its +10.78% return. Worst was my newsletter pick, LVLT and its -9.87% return. If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter you can do so by ordering monthly, 6-month, or annual membership from the 'Quantity' box in the right-hand-margin. If you would like to see Jim's picks you can tune into his TV show, or get them from Madd Money or Mad Money Recap . SPONSORED BY

Trade Ideas: IRM

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The rally marches on - although on a percentage basis there was little change to previous days gains, from the point of buying individual stocks there was a more substantial increase; the Trade Ideas scan took just 1 minute to come up with 8 stocks - better than previous days. The only stock to dominate the buying was W.R. Berkley ( BER ) at 43 appearances over the course of the day. But beyond that, there wasn't much pushing above 20 appearances . I have gone for Iron Mountain ( IRM ) which came in at the 20 appearance mark. The stock has come off a small bullish flag, closing Thursday at a new reaction high. Resistance remains a factor at $43.62, but the new up swing is helped by the early October "Golden Cross" between the 50-day and 200-day MAs. Stops can go on a loss of $41 (although my chart shows a stop for $40 support - either one will do depending on your risk threshold). October's action has the look of a 'handle', part of an 8-month base (see a w

Trade Ideas: TNP

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A roller coaster ride for the market after the Fed decision. The markets were left little changed by the close, but it remains to be seen which side (bull or bear?) will dominate. There was no great change in the level of individual stock buying; 8 picks covered a time span of 3 minutes ; a little stronger to the past couple days worth of buying. Most frequent to appear over the course of the day at 26 appearances was Tsakos Energy Navigation ( TNP ). The stock pays a healthy 5.8% yield. The stock broke through a bullish ascending triangle with new support at $45.65 and resistance at $50.00. Stops can go on a loss of last week's lows. The project target is around $66. Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited provides seaborne crude oil and petroleum product transportation services worldwide. The company owns a fleet of tankers that offer marine transportation services for independent oil companies and refiners under long, medium, and short-term charters. As of March 15, 2006, its fleet

Fallond / Trade Ideas / Jim Cramer : October 16th

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A strong week across the board for the different group of stock picks. The market ETFs continued their run of good form with a +0.76% average return for the week, but it was soiled a little, by the slightly lower close for the Qs. My Trade Ideas scan and Jim Cramer's picks were relatively tightly matched at +1.48% and +1.36% respectively. But, for the third time over the last five most recent comparisons, my newsletter picks came out tops with an average return of +3.10% per stock for the week. Best performer was my newsletter pick, StemCells ( STEM ), which closed up +6.77% on the week. Worst performer was Jim Cramer's Lowes ( LOW ); it closed the week down -2.20% . If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter you can do so by ordering monthly, 6-month, or annual membership from the 'Quantity' box in the right-hand-margin. If you would like to see J

Trade Ideas: LGF

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Markets are treading water in the run up to tomorrow's Fed meeting. The Trade Ideas scan was also relatively quiet as it took 4 minutes to come up with 8 stocks. Topping the bill at 32 appearances was IShares Dow Jones Energy ( IYE ). This was well clear of a glut of stocks appearing around 20 times over the course of the day. The best looking of the bunch was Lions Gate Entertainment ( LGF ). The stock is breaking from a consolidation triangle on light volume after moving away from the May/July double bottom. The potential upside is $12.50 (measured move forward). Stops can go on a loss of triangle lows and/or May/June reaction highs. Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. engages in the production and distribution of motion pictures, television programming, home entertainment, family entertainment, video-on-demand, and music content. Its theatrical movies include its in house production and films acquired from third parties. The company distributes a library of approximately 3,000 mot

Fallond / Trade Ideas / Jim Cramer : October 15th

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Monday's gains helped push the week-on-week performance for the market ETFs. Other than my newsletter picks ( -0.19% ) there were modest gains for Jim ( +0.87% ) and the market ETFs ( +0.82% ). Jim's performance was skewed by the strong performance of Lear ( LEA ); it closed the week up +22.34% . Removing Lear from his picks would have seen him down an average of -2.20% per trade. The Trade Ideas scan returned a respectable +0.23% on a 63% win percentage. Worst individual performer was Jim's Corning ( GLW ); it finished the week down -7.18% . If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter you can do so by ordering monthly, 6-month, or annual membership from the 'Quantity' box in the right-hand-margin. If you would like to see Jim's picks you can tune into his TV show, or get them from Madd Money or Mad Money Recap . SPONSORED BY:-

Trade Ideas: ILF

Earnings kept the rally bubbling, sweeping markets higher after days of quiet action. The Trade Ideas scan saw a reasonable broad swathe of buying with no one stock or ETF coming to the fore. Coverage of 8 stocks took 5 minutes ; a little longer than what could have been expected for a day such as it was. On the frequency table, IShares S&P Latin America 40 Index ( ILF ) was the most prevalent at 24 appearances over the day. A small handle allows for a 'buy' on a break of resistance with a stop on the flip side. Long term, look for a projected target move of the larger base, which should be enough to challenge $212. The investment seeks investment results that correspond closely to the performance, before fees and expenses, of the S&P Latin America 40 index. The fund invests at least 90% of assets in an aggregate sample of securities that reflect the predominant characteristics of its sector index. It invests in American Depository Receipts, rather than directly holdin

Fallondpicks.com: Weekend commentary

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A relatively boring week with markets retaining bullish rising channels (August-October). Where weakness crept in was a MACD 'sell' trigger in the NASDAQ as other technicals remained firm - on-balance-volume in particular supports a solid accumulation trend. The other change came in the Dow as it lost some ground (in terms of relative strength) to the NASDAQ 100 . Volume climbed to register a distribution day/bearish churning on a "spinning top doji" (equal open/close with long tailed shadows - i.e. a large range between days high/lows and open/close). On-balance-volume in the Dow still favors accumulation, but its MACD trigger line is hugging tight bullish divergence support and is only a short tick away from generating a breakdown. The semiconductor index lost the 50-day MA as support, but held former bull flag resistance as support. The bearish divergence in the MACD trigger line deepened as intermediate term slow stochastics [39,1] dropped into bearish market

Stockcharts.com: Weekly review

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The Dow hit the magical 12K. Tech indices are challenging May highs. Small caps continue to improve. How do things look for next week? Joe Reed noted RSI fast approaching 70 in the Dow; a previous marker for tops in 2000 and more recently in May 2006: His opinion is posted to the following chart. If he wants to claim "Near 100% Perfect Indicators" he would need to be more decisive than he is here... Top - Yes or No, Joe? Rodney Gorchinsky has gone with shorting a number of Dow components. He had this to say: Oct 20/06 4:30pm: At the close, we shorted: EMC, STX, AMD, MMM, CAT, HD, WMT, FRE, TGT and PFE in the NYMT Fund. The Zenit website has all the numbers you need to know (prices and shares). Thank you for your kind emails and valued votes. Have a great weekend. Noon: We will be playing 12,020 as a major resistance and 11,750 as a major support on all time cycles, as well as the necessity for the Architects to close at an attractive neutral level on option expiration day.

Start up Killers or Saviors?

It's tough running a small business. The 18 things which kill startups (from TraderMike 's linkfest) made for interesting reading. But, Peter Cochrane has a to do list of his own to help small business get off the ground (I like the last two the best): The in/beginning: >Identify and quantify an opportunity >Identify the customer and market >Search out the competition and assess the risk >Dig deep and try to understand every aspect >Locate suitable technology >Assemble a good team >Engineer a solution/prototype and check it out with a customer >Formulate a plan >Create a funding regime and raise the capital >Focus on getting the first $$ in the bank >Spend every $$ as if it were your last The out/exit: >Create a giant corporation >Create something a giant corporation will want to buy Any takers ;)

Trade Ideas: LYO, AGD, WWE, EMR, BEC, DNB, PCP, AZK

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The indices are behaving in a quiet, low key manner. But many individual stocks are showing some nice bullish action. Looking through my various picks I was seeing a number of bullish piercing patterns at points of support. The Trade Ideas scan picked up the buying pace from yesterday; 8 picks covered a time span of 6 minutes . Outside the range of recent buying, but a marked improvement to Wednesday's 17 minutes . The two most frequent to appear on the list were: Dun and Bradstreet ( DNB ) at 33 times , and Beckman Coulter ( BEC ) at 26 appearances . Both are pulling away from recent consolidations; DNB in particular is coming off a tightly held range between $74 and $75. World Wrestling Entertainment ( WWE ), Beckman Coulter ( BEC ), Precision Castparts ( PCP ), and Aurizon Mines ( AZK ) have all enjoyed bullish crosses of their 50-day MA by the 20-day MA inside the last 2 months. Cup-and-handle action can best be seen in: WWE (buy break of $17.50; stop on loss of $16; projec

Trade Ideas: FFC, CXR, GRB, HRP, PRU, TXT, KAD, ETW

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Other than the Dow it was another mixed day for the markets. The Dow made its trip above 12K but couldn't hold it by the close of business. Other markets closed down, but other than the semiconductor index, the degree of loss for these indices was low. A greater malaise was felt in the Trade Ideas scan; the 8 picks below covered a time span of 17 minutes . Buyers look to be turning their back on the markets. Of the 8 picks, four picks: Hrpt Properties ( HRP ), Prudential ( PRU ), Textron ( TXT ), and Arcadia ( KAD ) enjoyed bullish crosses of their 20-day and 50-day MAs. Gerber Scientific ( GRB ) was the only pick to endure a bearish cross of these averages. F & C Claymore ( FFC ) broke from a 7-month base with support at $20.50 and $20.80. Stops can go on a loss of the 50-day MA. Projected target of $22.50. Cox radio ( CXR ) has shaped a scrappy handle between $15 and $16. Projected target of $19. Similarly, Hrpt Properties ( HRP ) has shaped a scrappy handle in the $11.40 and

Collective2: ACLI out

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Pushed below the 7-day low to hit the stop intraday on Tuesday. Tightened the stop after what had been a rapid advance from $52 to $67. Trade exited at $63.89 for a +$1,488 profit on a 200 share lot. Three new plays have been added to take the exposure to 36% equity, 64% cash on a $100K account with $14.8K in banked profit. Collective2

Trade Ideas: NCV, MIR, EQ, CMA, GPS, TR, BNK, ABK

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The Dow just doesn't want to hit 12K, but early weakness didn't lead to bigger losses. Volume climbed to register a distribution day (a rare appearance given the frequency of accumulation days over the last 6 weeks). The semiconductor index was the big loser as it reversed off the 200-day MA. The Trade Ideas scan maintained a bullish stance; the 8 picks below covered a time span of 4 minutes - not bad given the resistance reversals in the broader market. Of the 8 stocks, three: Gap ( GPS ), Tootsie Roll ( TR ) and Banknorth ( BNK ) have managed bullish crosses of their 20-day/50-day MA inside the last 2 months. Mirant ( MIR ) and Ambac ( ABK ) have suffered bearish crosses of these averages over the same time period. Comerica ( CMA ) has shaped a handle from a 6-month base; stops on loss of $56, buy break of $58, projected target of $64. Gap ( GPS ) has broken through 12-month highs and should be good for a run to $22; stops on loss of $19. Trend followers should look to Ambac

Trade Ideas: Custom scan

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The Trade Ideas software offers many opportunities to define stock screens on an intraday level - but not everyone wants to (or can) work with the intraday movements of stock (me included). Trade Ideas will soon be introducing a custom scan feature based on daily data: The company offers a number of pre-defined scan options to get the ball rolling: But the real fun comes in its custom stock feature: Users get to select three options - but there is a great deal of flexibility available to the user in defining those parameters. For example, all the major indices are trading well above their 20-day MAs - so stocks at their 20-day MAs could be considered undervalued; so we can make our first choice "Max % up from 20-day MA", which I have selected to be 1%. Next we can look for bullish movement; because we are scanning for stocks near, or above the 20-day MA, we can select for stocks which are (likely) crossing through this average on the way higher. To do this, I have opted for

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