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Showing posts from November, 2015

Semiconductor Index Breaks 200-day MA

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Today offered a heavier than expected volume day post-holiday. The majority of this action was to the downside, but the Semiconductor Index bucked the trend.  The latter index was able to push above its 200-day MA as it posted a relative advantage against the Nasdaq 100. While the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 suffered losses today, both will be helped by strength in the Semiconductor Index.  All technicals for the Semiconductor Index are in the green, with a return of the MACD to a 'buy' trigger (above the bullish zero line - a bullish development).

Status Quo Maintained - Happy Thanksgiving!

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Holiday trading kicked into gear, although volume for the S&P managed to push into a technical accumulation day. Things are likely to remain quiet through to next week and any sharp moves at this stage have a high risk of failure. The top performing index on the day was the Russell 2000. It managed to add another decent gain o keep the string of higher closes running. It didn't quite close above 1,200, but it may do so Friday (with the aforementioned caveat of holiday trading). Overall action in this index has been positive, and relative performance to other indices continues to improve.

2-0 Bulls

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A second day for bulls to shine despite modest end-of-day gains. Some indices did better than others. The Russell 2000 was the key performer. It finished with a MACD trigger 'buy' and looks ready to outperform the Nasdaq 100.  This is an important development for bulls looking for more from other indices. A move to challenge - then break - its 200-day MA, would convert August-November action into a healthy basing action.

Sellers Fail To Break Bulls Resolve

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Modest losses on the day, but bears were unable to press declines. Volume was down considerably, which given the week that's in it is not surprising. The Nasdaq finished with a 'sell' trigger in On-Balance-Volume.

Modest Gains

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Friday was a low key affair. Small gains managed to rank as accumulation for the S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100, but there could be an argument for profit taking too. The S&P remains above 20-day and 200-day MAs. Friday did finish with a small spike high but there is demand to quickly pull up on any weakness which may be delivered on Monday.

Minor Losses Across Markets

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No follow through, but healthy action saw markets hang on to yesterday's gains. Volume declined to keep sellers at bay. The S&P is still working off a 'sell' trigger in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume.  However, the index remains above 20-day and 200-day MAs.

Bulls Negate Bearish Doji

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A very good day for bulls say yesterday's weakness blown away in decisive fashion. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day for the indices. The best of the action belonged to the Nasdaq 100. It gained nearly 2% in a move to challenge the 'bull trap'. It hasn't done so yet, but tomorrow could be the day new highs are posted for 2015. Today's gains came with a 'bull cross' in On-Balance-Volume.

Sellers Reverse Early Gains

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It was going to be too much for bulls to follow yesterday's gains with a repeat day, but they were unable to maintain what gains they had achieved by the close of business. This translated into bearish 'gravestone' doji for many of the indices. If true, then be wary of weakness off the open, as this may not reverse after the first half-hour of trading (an intraday reversal point). The S&P has the 'bear trap' to work with, and unless the 2,019 swing low is breached the 'bear trap' remains valid. Volume climbed to register as distribution, and the 200-day MA was tagged as resistance. However, relative performance remains good.

Bulls See The Day Out: Buying The Dip?

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Today was a decent day by bulls, coming in at key moving averages and closing the day with bullish engulfing patterns in major markets. This has the look of a buy-the-dip style low, but needs follow through over the next 5-7 days. The Nasdaq found buyers just above 4,900 and the 50-day MA. Buying volume was a little light, but that might be enough to lull shorts into a false sense of security.  The relative performance of the index continued to shift towards Large Caps and away from Tech, which may be a worry if the rally doesn't kick on.

Sellers Stick Around For Another Day

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Another day of selling took markets further away from their highs and into more well defined profit taking. Near term, there should be a rally to mount a  retest of October highs, and how this rally behaves will determine if this is a pullback or just a relief rally. The index to guide this differential will be the Russell 2000. Friday saw a finish on former declining resistance trendline, turned support. Technicals are weakening, and another couple of days like Friday would be enough to shift this net bearish techincally. As it stands, the current sell off could still be viewed as a bullish pull back and Monday is nicely set up for a rally.

Small Caps Hardest Hit

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There was no doubt who gained control of markets today. The S&P cut clean through the 200-day MA and is on course to test former resistance turned support. This latter level will soon coincide with the 50-day MA. Relative performance has pushed ahead of the Russell 2000.

Sellers Sow Doubts

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The 'buy-the-pullback' of yesterday was thrown into a bit of doubt as sellers made some early inroads into those gains. The bullish 'hammer' in the S&P which had marked support at the 200-day MA for a second day is under some pressure. It comes on the back of a 'sell' trigger in the MACD and a decisive 'sell' trigger in On-Balance-Volume. Substantial gains banked from September are under threat from profit takers. The question is whether buyers can come back and swing this back to accumulation than current distribution.

Sellers Apply The Squeeze

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A surprising turn by bears (still 30 minutes until close) has undone all of Friday's bullish gains and quickly dropped indices back towards support levels. Unfortunately, my Nasdaq 100 short was knocked out at its stop pre-market. Had bulls not put the work they did to recover initial losses on jobs data I might still be in this. C'est la vie. The S&P fell back to converged support of the 20-day and 200-day MAs. There is some claw back from the lows, so this support could hold through tomorrow.

Bulls Keep Things Ticking Over

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Jobs data brought with a roller coaster sell off and recovery, but by the close of business markets finished above their open price. The Russell 2000 had the best of action, continuing with its relative improvement to other indices.  The 200-day MA beckons.

Losses consolidate

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Today may have marked the second day of selling, but the selling was modest and nothing to threaten bulls. There were some minor technical changes. The S&P triggered a 'sell' in On-Balance-Volume, and flashed a relative strength trigger loss against the Russell 2000. Howeve, the index is well away from either price support or resistance.

Markets Enjoy Accumulation

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The winning streak continued with indices enjoying further gains on higher volume accumulation. While percentage gains were small, the volume traded was above that of yesterday. The Nasdaq 100 built on its breakout on respectable volume. The breakout probably hasn't enough wiggle room to protect itself from a days worth of selling, but there is a substantial gap to protect which will offer bulls something better to work with.

Breakout in Nasdaq 100

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Straight from the off it was a day which belonged to bulls. There was no let up from what was a steady rise higher from open to close. Volume was a little disappointing, but it was a good day for the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100. The Nasdaq 100 did enough to close with a new high on continued technical strength. It was enough to knock out my short play, so next is to watch for the 'bull trap'. The flip side is a strong set up for a rally into Christmas. Remember, the strength of the sell-off in August/September was the first since 2011 - a basis for a strong swing low.

Selling Expansion - Small Caps Steady

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Thursday did see Small Caps take a bit more of a beating than other indices, and Friday was an opportunity for other indices to catch up. The previously hit Russell 2000 didn't suffer too much additional damage, so Monday may offer bulls the chance to make a fresh run on all lead indices. The Russell 2000 is showing a weakening of trend with the ADX below 10 and plenty of whipsaw between +DI and -DI.  This probably helps bulls more as the index looks to break from the declining trend.

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