Posts

Showing posts from December, 2012

Weekly Market Commentary: Light Volume Selling Continues

Image
Seasonal light trading clouded what was a tumultuous week for the indices.  What few traders were playing the market this week did so on a background of fear.  Had selling volume been higher it would have been a troublesome end-of-week, but this may still be nothing more than a pullback. Breadth wasn't extensively damaged by the selling.  The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA remained net bullish, at 53% stocks holding above this key moving average - down from 65%. The Nasdaq Bullish Percents actually scraped another 1% gain. It too finished the week with 54% of stocks on point-n-figure 'buy' signal. The Nasdaq Summation Index turned net bullish technically, despite closing the week lower. So market breadth isn't so bearish as last week's losses suggest.  The Nasdaq is in range bound territory, and could take a 100 point hit and not lose its longer based bull trend. The Russell 2000 probably has another week of losses to digest be

Daily Market Commentary: Eases Away From Resistance

Image
It was a day for relatively modest selling on light volume.  Largest selling came from the S&P, which finished yesterday against resistance. The larger decline in the S&P translated as a relative shift in favour of Technology stocks (Nasdaq).  The selling in the Nasdaq was much milder. The Russell 2000 finished the day flat, but since the start of December it has been the strongest index. There is a good chance there is more to come. Technicals remain strong. Tomorrow will probably be the last we will see of volume trading before Christmas. Things still look good for bulls with today's loss relatively minor. --- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the-World in the Tra

Daily Market Commentary: Another Strong Day

Image
Yesterday was good, but today was surprisingly better. Volume climbed to register yet another accumulation day; the past four heavier volume trade days have been tied to buying. Bulls have the bit between their teeth. The S&P finished at resistance defined by September and October swing highs. Technicals are in excellent shape, but has it the momentum to break through? The Nasdaq put further distance from its converged 20-day, 50-day and 200-day MAs. Like the S&P, it is well placed technically to support further gains, although On-Balance-Volume only recently turned back to the green. The Russell 2000 had another good day, and relative strength continues to show strong leadership from the Small Caps sector. Look for this to continue in the days and weeks ahead. On a final note, the Nasdaq 100 - which had been lagging the Nasdaq a little - cleared resistance. It seems too much to ask if tomorrow will make it three good days in a row! --- Follow Me on Tw

Daily Market Commentary: Solid Rally on Good Accumulation

Image
The weekly charts left me thinking this would be a weak week, but Monday's action has thrown this negative outlook into doubt.  It was a solid gain, with markets gaining over 1% on higher volume accumulation.  It has set up the rest of the week nicely. The S&P worked a rally off its 50-day MA, with a 'Golden Cross' between the 20-day and 50-day MA likely to occur tomorrow. The Nasdaq is stuck in an interesting juxtaposition.  The 50-day MA is above to generate a 'Death Cross' to its 200-day MA , while at the same time, the 20-day MA is about to go 'Golden Cross' on the 50-day MA! The index itself rallied from its 20-day MA, to close above both 50-day and 200-day MAs. The Russell 2000 got the best of the action. It found support at 825 with a fresh 'Golden Cross' between 20-day and 50-day MAs. The index remains well placed to challenge 868 into the early part of 2013 - Fiscal Cliff or not. The frequency of posts is likely to dimin

Weekly Market Commentary: Santa Rally Week 4

Image
It was a relatively good week for bulls, with breadth continuing to improve for technology indices. The indices did close near the week lows, but losses may be overstated. The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA fell just shy of the 50% mark, but still managed to add a few points from last week. The Nasdaq Bullish Percents did scrape over the 50% mark, but it has been a very modest advance in this particular breadth index since the start of the Santa Rally. It would be good to get a but more 'oomph', but the spring/summer rally started under similar conditions, and it lasted a number of months. However, the Nasdaq Summation Index made good ground. There is little to suggest the rally is about to end anytime soon. The Nasdaq finished near the lows, but remains effectively range bound; 2,800 is support and 3,200 is resistance (with 3,100 minor resistance). On-Balance-Volume switched to a 'sell' trigger. The Russell 2000 held its breakout

Stock Review: $MAT, $HITK, $EMR

Image
Three stocks from three strong performing sectors : Mattel, Hi Tech Pharmacal, and Emerson Electric. Read more about them here . ----- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the-World in the Trading Strategy Marketplace Leaderboard. The Leaderboard also supports advanced search capability so you can tailor your strategies to suit your individual requirements. Zignals offers a full suite of FREE financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts , stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock quote watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager , active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and tradi

Daily Market Commentary: Selling Pressure Emerges

Image
The selling from yesterday carried over into today, and markets worked themselves lower. However, markets took advantage of support where available. The Nasdaq clung on to its 200-day MA, despite a brief move below this key support level intraday. Volume climbed in confirmed distribution, so the respite at the 200-day MA may be brief. The S&P touched the 50-day MA at its low, but there is probably more downside to come. The Russell 2000 hasn't hit any moving average yet, and could comfortably take a third day of selling before it would. Friday probably won't offer a whole lot.  A late rally would help shore up confidence going into the weekend, but the November-December rebound could take a more substantial pullback and still be considered bullish. --- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed

Daily Market Commentary: Supply Emerges

Image
The history books will show another higher close for the S&P, but today was the first day in a while sellers were able to exert some influence. Other indices didn't fare so well, all finishing lower. Small Caps suffered the heaviest selling, finishing the day with a bearish engulfing pattern. The S&P looks like it's about to offer a couple days of weakness, but there should be support at the 20-day MA, if not the 50-day MA.  Watch action at these two levels. The Russell 2000 had enjoyed the strongest advance (as measured by relative strength against the S&P) since mid-November, but this strength has also left it most exposed to potential sellers. The 50-day MA is a logical support level.  There is also a 'Golden Cross' between 200-day an 20-day MAs to look too. The Nasdaq was caught in the middle of the two extremes of Small and Large Caps. It has the 50-day MA as nearest support, with the 200-day MA next up. The key for all of these indices

Review: AVG Technologies ($AVG)

This week's stock review is for AVG Technologies ($AVG) and can be found here . Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the-World in the Trading Strategy Marketplace Leaderboard. The Leaderboard also supports advanced search capability so you can tailor your strategies to suit your individual requirements. Zignals offers a full suite of FREE financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts , stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock quote watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager , active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy comm

Daily Market Commentary: Solid Upside Follow Through

Image
The number of blog readers has fallen in recent days as people look towards Christmas, but today gave an indication that not everyone is looking towards the holidays.  Technology enjoyed the best of the action.  The Nasdaq 100 broke above resistance on higher volume accumulation, with technicals shifting net bullish. The Russell 2000 enjoyed a solid gap higher.  The gaps today, and in November, look like measured move gaps - which reinforces the possibility for a move back to September highs. The S&P had the best of the relative trading volume, but struggled a little to put some distance to its 50-day MA. The other good news for bulls, was the continued shift in relative strength to Small Caps and Tech, and away from the safety of Large Cap stocks. The Santa Rally continues for another day... --- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for g

Daily Market Commentary: Quiet Day

Image
The bullish picture remained intact after another narrow range day on light volume.  The Russell 2000 continued to offer the best opportunity for bulls, trading in a tight 'flag' with good potential for a measured move higher.  Such a move would take the index back to the September high. The Nasdaq lingers around its 200-day MA, but hasn't driven through to suggest bulls have consumed all the supply common at key moving averages. The S&P is holding on to its 50-day MA, but today's doji offered little to either side. Bulls to press on tomorrow? --- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the-World in the Trading Strategy Marketplace Leaderboard. The Leaderboard al

Weekly Market Commentary: Positive Action on Low Key Week

Image
Calm before the storm? It was a relatively quiet week for markets.  Daily charts tested key support levels of 200-day and 50-day MAs, while the point shift in these markets was relatively minor.  Weekly market breadth was also relatively unaffected. The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA had one of the smallest changes for 2012. It's also in neutral territory, but rising, in line with a seasonal 'Santa Rally' The Nasdaq is caught in a bit of trading range, with 3,100-3,196 likely to play as supply in the latter part of December. The light breadth action reflecting this indecision. Small Caps remain the index of choice. The 'bear trap' is playing nicely for bulls.  A break above 868 would be very positive for the index, and it could be a big performer in 2013. The S&P is also coming off a 'bear trap', but it looks like there is a bit more potential in Small Caps to maximize its benefit. However, the S&P should see 1,474 b

Stock Review: $TSO, $KKD, $GOLD

Tesoro Petroleum, Krispy Kreme Doughnuts and Randgold Resources all had solid 2012's from when I first featured them.  You can read more about what to look forward to for 2013 here . Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the-World in the Trading Strategy Marketplace Leaderboard. The Leaderboard also supports advanced search capability so you can tailor your strategies to suit your individual requirements. Zignals offers a full suite of FREE financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts , stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock quote watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager , active stock screener with

Daily Market Commentary: Quietly Bullish

Image
There wasn't a whole lot of movement in the market, but what movement there was - was higher.  Volume also came in lighter. Markets are still nicely poised for another leg higher, and the tight action of recent days allow for a reasonably tight stop. The Russell 2000 is still the best positioned index to gain.  It remains tied to its 50-day MA, with a very tight bullish flag.  Technicals all bullish. The Nasdaq staged a recovery to its 200-day MA.  The falling 50-day MA is nearby to add selling pressure, and the dreaded "Death Cross" looms on the horizon. The S&P is about to test the strength of supply at its 50-day MA.  Given the action in the Russell 2000, there is a good chance the S&P will be able to push through. Tomorrow should see bulls continue their run of form.  The Russell 2000 remains the index of choice for buyers as it leads relatively. --- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community

Daily Market Commentary: Mixed Bag

Image
It was a day of contrasts. Large Cap indices got the best of the action, closing up (slightly) on higher volume accumulation.  Tech Averages did not fare so well, the Nasdaq 100 suffering worst on the day. The S&P experienced a wide range day, stopping at its 50-day MA. Technicals clung to its bullish particulars. But the Nasdaq was rebuffed by its 200-day MA. with the 50-day MA overhead as resistance. The Nasdaq 100 was particularly hard hit, leaving behind a bull trap. While the Russell 2000 escaped relative unscathed. Bulls should still look to the Russell 2000, which continues to exhibit good bullish form, despite today's losses. Technology had a bad day, which threw a spanner in the works for those looking for support at 200-day MA. The 20-day MA is next. --- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can

Daily Market Commentary: Mixed Losses

Image
Tough to know what to make of today.  On a relative scale, losses were light, but volume was higher - marking confirmed distribution. The broader 'Santa Rally' remains in good health, and the two days of losses are part of a rebuff from 50-day MAs. Technicals also remain positive. The S&P is caught between its 50-day and 200-day MA, and losses are on course to shape a swing low at either the 20-day or 200-day MA. How the 200-day MA can play as support will first be determined by the Nasdaq.  It finished the day at 200-day MA, so if buyers are going to view it as support, then they will need to step in soon - if not tomorrow. But the index best placed to gain, and the index which performed best today, is the Russell 2000.  The index is holding the 50-day MA support and outperforming both the Nasdaq and S&P.  Technicals are also getting stronger. Purveyors of the Santa Rally will want to keep an eye on the Russell 2000, it still looks like it will be the

Archive

Show more