There wasn't a whole lot of action in markets after yesterday's decent gains. The only index to suffer any kind of reversal was the Russell 2000. It holds on to its channel breakout, but the 1% loss will have hurt it.
Trader's interpretation of a Fed interest rate hike first sent buyers running, then shorts were left scrambling as bulls took control. The Russell 2000 had the best of the action after a long period of under performance. It gained almost 3% with a channel breakout. It's looking good for a push to the 200-day MA.
The last couple of days have seen tight action which has helped consolidate gains. The biggest change has come with some of the relative moves in the indices. The S&P has added to its relative out performance, particularly against Small Caps. It's perhaps the only point of weakness given the importance of Small Cap leadership in sustaining bull trends.
Friday was a good day for both Tech and Large Cap indices, with decent gains on modest volume. Small Caps also posted gains, but were unable to break the October consolidation or the declining channel. The relative performance of Russell 2000 has dropped off a cliff through October, which is a concern. A lack of leadership from speculative small caps will quickly kill the sustainability of this rally in Large Caps and Tech indices. If the Russell 2000 is to offer any form of leadership then it has to post gains on Monday as it's right against consolidation resistance. A push to 1,180 should be enough to break the declining channel. Of supporting technicals, only the +DI/-DI has yet to turn positive.
Today's selling looked much worse on an intraday chart than it probably created in reality. The profit taking did rank as distribution; distribution which kicked in at resistance for the likes of the S&P, but didn't do enough damage to threaten the breakouts in the Tech indices. While there may be some follow through down in the coming days, be ready for bulls to bid prices back. Remember, we are entering a seasonally bullish period. The S&P has offered the picture perfect short play for those who took advantage of the tag of resistance. Technicals were little changed after today and hold with a bullish outlook.
Small gains yesterday, small losses today. The tone of the action hasn't changed and markets wait the next big move. Volume climbed to register as distribution, which is perhaps the only point of interest today. The Nasdaq 100 remains above its 200-day MA but below the jobs-data spike high. Of the indices, it is caught between supply and demand, but technicals are firmly in bulls favour. If bears are going to get joy, then a push below 4,300 will be needed.
There wasn't much to say about today. Small gains kept things ticking over, but there were no key breaks of resistance. Tomorrow is another day. Shorts may again try to short the S&P with today's close near highs, and the convergence of resistance.