Monday, September 09, 2013

Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Defend Lows Despite Rumors

A scary start for the markets on Friday was quickly reversed, but buyers were prepared to defend the lows of late August/September which is good news for those looking for further upside. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day, although there are still resistance levels to overcome.

The S&P closed just above its 20-day MA, but below its 50-day MA. Buyers were able to take the market all the way to its 50-day MA - but not beyond.

The Nasdaq is looking well placed to clear 3,700 resistance which will be significant for the broader market. There is already a marked acceleration in the relative performance of the Nasdaq against the S&P since the end of July - the Nasdaq is the path of least resistance for longs.

Assuming the Nasdaq clears 3,700, it will do so from a 'neutral' position in breadth metrics. That is, we are not looking at a particularly good buy-and-hold signal, but we are looking at something which could give a solid % return as stocks will not have had a chance to sell off to a point where fear could become an issue. 

Although the Nasdaq Summation Index is on the verge of giving a nice 'buy' signal (ideally, I like to see this around -800 for a strong buy; but it would take another 2-3 months of declines from here and I don't see this happening at the moment).

The Russell 2000 is the only index caught in a bit of a bind. Channel support looks good and 1,000 will be key psychological support. However, the 'Death Cross' between 20-day and 50-day MAs has so far proven enough to contain things. I think it will break higher today, but wait for this to happen before going long.

Futures are pointing to a higher open, so it could be a solid day for the bulls if indices start above resistance MAs.


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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for
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