Monday, July 12, 2021

Markets edge a little higher, but larger picture unchanged

We are still seeing most of the leg work been done by Large Cap stocks while Small Caps remain caught within their base.  Trading volume was below Friday's selling, and only the Nasdaq had action of note as today's doji left it bang-on the bearish black candlestick of last week; any gain tomorrow will negate this bearish candlestick.

The S&P added a little more as it marked a new all-time high, although the rate of relative (out-)performance against the Russell 2000 slowed.

The Russell 2000 closed above its 50-day MA, but moving averages are of less importance during a basing pattern.  Trading volume was very light and with vacation season fast approaching it's unlikely to pick up with sufficient momentum to sustain a rally. 

We have markets diven by Large Cap leadership, but still needing Small Cap participation to give it any kind of sustainability. If this Covid rally fails we could see markets moving back through Fibonacci levels

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.