Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Sucker Punch Bears

The only thing to disappoint bulls was the lack of volume, but the recovery from the Friday follow through was impressive. It still hasn't changed the larger picture, namely a 50:50 struggle between bears breaking the 200-day MA in the Russell 2000, and bulls looking for new all-time highs in the S&P/Dow Jones; the latter index in particular.

The Russell 2000 is getting squeezed by the 20-day and 200-day MAs, which will break first? Shorts have been aggressive at the 20-day MA, bulls at the 200-day MA, who will win Tuesday?

The S&P has defended converged 20-day and 50-day MAs and rallied back to the open price from Friday, but this time it's the turn of the bulls to try and push their advantage.

The Dow confirmed the 20-day MA as support. It's more likely to break ahead of the S&P first given the proximity to resistance.

The Nasdaq also found support at the 20-day MA, but it has a number of overhead resistance levels to contend with: first of which is the April swing high.

The week opened with Friday's hangover, but perked up by the close. The week is set for bulls to build on their advantage. Will they succeed, or will it be 'sell in May and go away'?


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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com.
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