Saturday, January 19, 2013

Weekly Market Commentary: Spike High in 52-Week Highs

Last week, the NYSE 52-week high was approaching a spike high, but this week may actually mark the spike high.  The 19-week EMA at 419 is the highest it has been in 10-years.  The Nasdaq hasn't spiked to the same degree, but is approaching a yearly high.  However, spike highs in this indicator do not usually mark major tops, but are typically associated with the start of consolidations.

The Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MA remains close to maxed out at 78%. Technicals are heavily overbought.  Again, as with 52-week Highs, swing highs in this breadth metric don't directly lead to a decline in the parent Nasdaq.

Nasdaq Bullish Percents are inching their way towards resistance.  Technicals have only entered overbought territory, but stochastics usually remain overbought for a number of weeks before this breadth index peaks.

It's a similar story for the Nasdaq Summation Index.  It's likely still a little early for a top in this breadth index.

The Nasdaq itself is still range bound.

The Russell 2000 finished the week strongly, maintaining its breakout from the prior week.

While the S&P closed the week with a breakout of its own.

The breakouts in the Russell 2000 and S&P should help the Nasdaq follow suit.  In addition, the breadth indices would suggest there is a few more weeks of gains in the Nasdaq before a swing high is in place.


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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the-World in the Trading Strategy Marketplace Leaderboard. The Leaderboard also supports advanced search capability so you can tailor your strategies to suit your individual requirements.

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