Not a whole lot you can say about today. After yesterday's whopper day it was always going to be tough to get a repeat of the buying, but the good news is it didn't give up any of those gains either. The S&P is honoring declining resistance (from the 'bull trap' highs). On-balance-volume switched back to a 'sell' trigger. The Nasdaq was able to push above 2,616, bringing with it a 'buy' trigger in the +DI/-DI and Stochastics. Nasdaq Breadth also improved, although the recovery is not from an oversold position, this may shorten the length of the bounce. While the Nasdaq 100 was able to push above its 200-day MA (not to mention its 20-day and 50-day MAs too), but is still contained by 2,320 resistance. Finally, the Russell 2000 stays pegged to resistance aswell. Because of the minor losses the indices are well placed to push higher and break resistance. Given the influence of European troubles on the U.S. market, futures shou

Today's massive rally added about a week's worth of gain in just one day. Volume surged to mark the first true accumulation day since indices broke above 200-day MAs at the end of October. In a rare sequence, it has taken only three days to reverse seven consecutive days of losses. Has Santa made an early delivery? The S&P rallied through 50-d and 20-d MAs to finish at wedge resistance. Above lurks the 'Bull Trap' divider at 1,260. Technicals have seen some significant improvement with bullish crosses of on-balance-volume, +DI to -DI and Stochastics; a great day for the index. To break out of the wedge and above 1,260 seems too much to ask for tomorrow - but it will probably happen pre-market! The Dow was another star performer. It managed to go a step further by closing above its 200-day MA and is very close to taking out the October swing high - continuing the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Like the S&P it too saw net bullish crosses in Sto

Yesterday's low volume gain sowed a seed of doubt into the strength of the buying. While expanding technical weakness further tilted things towards sellers. However, today's action didn't see a rush to the exits and trading volume was again light. Moving averages are offering resistance, but a modest gain will be enough to break many them. The S&P was repelled by the 50-day MA as the MACD and On-Balance-Volume builds towards a new 'buy' trigger despite the net bearish technical picture. The Nasdaq gave back intraday gains, but didn't impinge on Monday's premarket gap. It will be important for the gap to hold if 2,441 is to be treated as a swing low of a new rally. The Russell 2000 traded tight around its 50-day MA with very little intraday movement. Swing traders may want to play a break of Tuesday's high/low with a stop on the flip side of today's range. One can't read too much into today - Moving Average resistance is the k

I had looked to 'Black Friday' as the day we would see the big one-day rally. Instead, Monday (or more precisely, pre-market Monday) was when markets booked their gain. Unfortunately, the gains came at a cost. First up was the Russell 2000. It posted nearly a 5% gain, but it wasn't enough to recover a net bearish turn in technicals. Monday's rally finished just shy of its 50-day MA. The tricky part is the current trading inside August-September congestion. A break of the 50-day MA tomorrow sets up a move to the 20-day MA at 722.81. The S&P also experienced what looks to be a 'dead cat bounce'. Volume was down with the 50-day MA nearby to provide resistance. As with all the lead indices, the August-October congestion range keeps things tricky; although 'bull traps' typically retrace the entire move - and then some. The Nasdaq is also stuck in the Aug-Oct congestion zone. But the concern is not the index, but supporting market breadth indic

Hope everyone has a great long weekend! While I remain optimistic for Friday's half-day of trading it would have taken a brave person to take a position at today's close.  Volume was light, which was no surprise.   Even if Friday turns into a good day for bulls, the longer term picture still points towards lower prices. The gap in the Nasdaq following the loss of the 50-day MA has the look of a measuring gap, which means a downward target of 2,400. Like the Nasdaq 100 yesterday it turned net bearish technically. While the Nasdaq 100 looks on course to test broadening wedge support The S&P had a rough day as it also turned net bearish technically. While the October swing low at 600 is acting like a Sirens call for the Russell 2000 Bears have been turning the screw every day for the past week, bulls should get a brief respite on Friday before bears return Monday.  Santa could do with an early call! Enjoy the holiday and enjoy Thursday games! ----

For a fifth day markets kept ticking lower (with the exception of the Nasdaq 100), although losses were light. Technicals continued to weaken alongside price; ironically, there was a net bearish turn in technicals for the Nasdaq 100 - the index which had been leading. Today's low was slightly lower than yesterday's, with the bulk of the trading occurring within the lower half of yesterday's trading. Going by memory, 'Black Friday' has traditionally been a good day for the market, so tomorrow may be an opportune moment to take early advantage of a possible half-day rally. The Nasdaq 100 was the only index to close higher. The gap is a tempting draw for short term long plays, but the net bearish turn in technicals is a more worrying omen. The Russell 2000 was defending its 50-day MA and finished today below this moving average; but it's still close enough to offer itself as a support play at the moving average. Will buyers jump the gun and bid up

Last Thursday saw the Nasdaq 100 give up its 50-day MA; Friday it was the turn of the Nasdaq; Today it was the S&P 500. Volume climbed to register distribution as technical weakness accelerated. The break of the 50-day MA in the S&P was accompanied with an on-balance-volume 'sell' trigger. Today's loss firmly dropped the index inside August-September congestion, but I don't expect the S&P to find support until October lows are tested - primarily because of the 'bull traps'. However, this doesn't kill the possibility of a 'Santa Rally', just the timing of a swing low. The Nasdaq gapped lower and may 'dead-cat' bounce back to its 50-day MA. Watch for a potential 'Death Cross' between 20-day and 50-day MA, with the weakening 20-day MA acting as an attack point for shorts. The isolation of the selling is best illustrated by the Nasdaq 100. That is one lonely candeline! Only the Russell 2000 is clinging on to 5