Thursday, June 23, 2011

Daily Market Commentary: Late Selling Disappoints

Up until Bernanke opened his mouth the market was having a generally positive day. Despite the late sell off, markets were able to retain the bulk of yesterday's gains and sold off on modest (i.e. lighter) volume. The concern for tomorrow is whether the afternoon sell off follows through tomorrow morning.

The S&P is well positioned to push higher, assuming it can stay close to 1,290. However, additional selling that undercut Tuesday's low would favor a new test of the 200-day MA - and likely worse.



The Nasdaq held a former important support level at 2,670 and is close to a MACD trigger 'buy'.



While the Russell 2000 was pegged by 810 resistance, it was able to retain 20-day MA support.



The first 30 minutes of Thursday's trading will likely set the tone for the entire day. Any sell off will have to be quickly recovered as bulls don't have much room to work with; all it will take is one more >1% loss to have markets looking at breaks of 200-day MA support. However, if Wednesday's highs are broken it will confirm the June reaction low as a bottom and sets a retest of the late May reaction high as an upside target. In such a case, stops would be placed on a loss of the Wednesday low.

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