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Daily Market Commentary: 'Death Crosses'

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There are two sides to the coin. On the bullish front is the "bullish harami" (S&P and Dow) or "bullish harami cross" (Semiconductor index). On the bearish front is a 'Death Cross' between 20-day and 50-day MAs for the Semiconductor index, Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. The semiconductor index experienced both sides of the coin. The 'bullish harami cross' is one of the most bullish reversal patterns. It is helped by oversold stochastics and a MACD historgram on the rise. Stop goes on a break of 408.69 (closed at 417.97). The upside target is the fast falling 20-day MA, currently at 445.35. ($SOX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq opened at former channel support but couldn't push higher - lending weight towards an acceleration to the downside. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com The S&P played more to the 'bullish harami'. It was able to dig in at 1,260 support, but has its work cut out to break back inside the former channel or the fast

Daily Market Commentary: Extends Losses

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There was no escape for bulls as the breakdown gap from the open held. As a result, bulls were unable to grab control of the market in the fist hour. When this buying exhausted control was ceded back to bears. Selling in the S&P was able to dig fingernails in at yesterday's lows on heavier volume distribution. Based on my sectorbreadth analysis, the S&P has not reached a bottom (but it's close). ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq closed outside of its downward channel. Higher volume distribution was also in the picture; since the gap down there have been eight distribution days to one accumulation day. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com The Russell 2000 wasn't as hard hit as other indices. Wednesday's selling actually left it sitting on downward channel support and positioned for a bounce. ($RUT) via StockCharts.com The Dow Jones Index had been relatively immune to the selling. It had been the last to crack outside of its rising channel from last s

Daily Market Commentary: Decent Recovery But Bearish Gap Dominates

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With the day starting on the back of a 10% discount in the Nikkei it was always going to be a tough market for buyers. But the brave stepped in right from the off and were able to position themselves nicely for a bounce. The concern is the morning gap down; it has the look of a measuring gap which suggests the market is only half way towards its true bottom. This isn't to say a bounce can't emerge, but when it does it's likely to stall out quickly. The S&P has a 'hammer' which held 1,260 at the low on heavier volume (distribution). The newly drawn channel is holding support which suggests there is a good chance for a bounce higher tomorrow. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq finished just below 2,670 support after starting the day more than 40 points lower. Volume climbed to register a distribution day. The set up offers enough for a long play to channel resistance, but if it gaps and stalls tomorrow then I be worried for a retest of Tuesday's low (

Daily Market Commentary: Indices Net Bearish

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The last of the technicals rolled over as momentum indicators joined trend and volume indicators net negative. The S&P was able to dig in with a 'hammer' on channel support. The index finished just below its 50-day MA, but the proximity of channel support is enough to consider it positioned for a bounce. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Dow was the last of the indices to lose the primary trend dating back to last summer. ($INDU) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq finished with an indecisive spinning top. The 20-day MA is moving lower and is on course for a 'Death Cross' between 20-day and 50-day MAs. The index is caught in the no-mans land between 50-day and 200-day MAs which often leads to scrappy action in both directions. ($INDU) via StockCharts.com Small Caps are similarly maligned. There was at least a bullish hammer at its 50-day MA, but it didn't quite make it down to channel support. ($RUT) via StockCharts.com For tomorrow, look to the newly fo

Weekly Market Commentary: Markets Down But Not Out

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A mix of bad news and not-so-bad news. On the bad news front was the confirmation of the bull trap in the Nasdaq, mixed in with a 'sell' trigger in its MACD. The reversal off 2,818 is a concern given a 100+ point rally will be required to bring back the index above this resistance level. The weakest of the indices. Nasdaq via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq 100 hasn't lost is breakout with support some 82 points below (so still plenty of room to maneuver). But it did generate a MACD trigger 'sell' which will add pressure on the bull side. ($NDX) via StockCharts.com The ground the Russell 2000 lost dropped it to former bull flag resistance-turned-support. While this is not ideal and it came on the back of a MACD trigger 'sell' too. Luckily the index is by no means as bearish as the bull trap in the Nasdaq. ($RUT) via StockCharts.com The S&P is clinging on to the break of 1,300. There is no MACD trigger 'sell' to compound the selling, but it

Daily Market Commentary: Support Breaks

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Lots went on today, but the general summation was for a broad break of support across indices. The S&P suffered heavy volume distribution as the double inside day broke down. Losses in the S&P took it below its 50-day MA. On-balance-volume triggered a 'sell' signal. Relative strength shifted away from speculative small caps to safer large caps, despite losses to large caps. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Dow, the most consistent of the main indices, broke through rising support. ($INDU) via StockCharts.com Tech indices gapped down strongly on heavier volume. Technicals for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 turned net bearish. With 50-day MAs breached there is little support to look too other than 200-day MAs. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com ($NDX) via StockCharts.com The semiconductor index gapped down strongly having cleared the 50-day MA the day before; technicals were left net bearish. Best hope for bulls is for a sideways consolidation, although the 200-day MA

Daily Market Commentary: Semiconductors Carry Weight of Indices

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For many indices it was quiet day. The S&P was able to dig in at its 20-day MA in tight trading, clinging to channel support at the same time. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq closed with an inside day of an inside day, right above its 50-day MA. This tight coiling action typically unwinds with a sizable move. Two days of distribution in three suggest this move will be down. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com Lending weight to the "next move is down" story was the clean slice of the 50-day MA by the semiconductor index. It's a worrying because everything above 445 is now supply. It also pushes the index into a no-mans land between 50-day and 200-day MAs. ($SOX) via StockCharts.com The same vulnerability exists for the Nasdaq 100 at its 50-day MA as does for the Nasdaq. ($NDX) via StockCharts.com Thursday's morning trading may be very tentative, especially in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. Bulls will hope the semiconductor index can catch a bid and regai

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