The Semiconductor index has a Point-n-Figure chart target of 260 (which would amount to a 50%+ decline from its 2007 highs!). To negate this target the index would need to muster an upside breakout, with 364 likely to define such a threshold.
The technology sector is one of the first to push higher from a recessionary environment. Chips should lead other technology based sectors. For the purpose of disclosure I am long some deep-in-the-money calls on the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) with the intention of taking some money off the table on a test of the 50-day MA.
As for other indices, use the 2-day range and apply Fibonacci retracements. If looking to buy then split orders to cover fills on the 38%, 50% and 62% retracement, adding on a break of the 2-day high when further retracements appear unlikely. Stops go on a 1% break of 2-day lows.