The Nasdaq went into the weekend with a breakout, and despite Friday losses it managed to cling on to breakout support.  There was good buying volume on the breakout, and Friday's selling volume was well down on previous buying - confirming the move.  The let down was the lack of price follow through.  Technicals are in good shape, particularly stochastics amd relative index performance. The only disappointment was the relatively lacklustre MACD, which has flatlined a little. 

Hardly inspiring, but a price breakout it was.  The Nasdaq edged itself above resistance, but it will need to do more to confirm.  There was a MACD trigger 'buy' to go with generally improved technicals - although On-Balance-Volume remains bearish. Today's candlestick was not exactly blowing it out of the water, but it did qualify as a breakout

The setup is done, there is only one thing left for the Nasdaq to do, and that's breakout.  We haven't yet got the MACD 'buy' trigger, this will come on the push above 12,250. On-Balance-Volume improved on today's action but hasn't yet switched to a 'buy'.  Other technicals are good.  We were in a similar position this time last week, before markets drifted back.  It's hard to see this happening again, but tomorrow will ultimately decide.

The sense of deja vu strikes once more as we consider yet another attempt at a resistance breakout for the Nasdaq, and potentially the S&P too. The Nasdaq shows solid price action in preperation for a breakout, but the technical picture is a little more muddled.  Momentum (by Stochastics) - the strongest of the indicators here - is firmly bullish. The MACD is flattening a little, but is well above the bullish zero line and on the verge of a new 'buy' trigger.  Not surprisingly, the trend metric, ADX, has flatlined.  However, On-Balance-Volume is drifting lower after a series of distribution days and this opens the door for a potential 'bull trap' *if* there is a breakout. 

It wasn't a great day for indices, particularly as volume ranked as confirmed distribution for the S&P and Nasdaq, with daily volume traded higher than any prior buying day.  Neither market is down at key support, and as long as this remains the case this still looks like a prelude to a breakout; it would take a loss of 50-day MAs in both indices to reverse my optimism. The Nasdaq is dealing with 'sell' triggers in the MACD and OBV, but the index continues to outperform the S&P. 

There really wasn't much wiggle room for markets without delivering breakouts for the Nasdaq and S&P, but yet, markers managed to find them.  The Nasdaq delivered a narrow day at resistance, but still no breakout.  There was no change in the technical picture, but the index is very close to a new 'buy' signal in the MACD.

Bears were unable to press their advantage when the first challenge of resistance failed.  Instead, buyers mounted a fresh charge with the Nasdaq and S&P recording accumulation days.  For the last couple of months, when buyers have had control of the Nasdaq, they have done so on bullish accumulation, but when bears had the edge they haven't been able to control the story.  The Nasdaq returned a fresh 'buy' signal in On-Balance-Volume and ADX, and a return in bullish relative performance over the S&P.  With the index back at 12,225, we have yet another knock on the door of a breakout. Remember, triple tops are rare, and for bears to have the edge they will need a small miracle to drive this lower.  I would be looking for a breakout at minimum, bears may yet win out with a 'bull trap', but we cross that bridge when we come to it.