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Despite the buying, breakdowns remain

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Last week closed with sellers in control and this pessimism was reflected in the buying of the last two days.  The Nasdaq had undercut March lows and had managed a day of accumulated buying yesterday, but today's neutral doji marked doubts on behalf of buyers. Technicals are net bearish, but there is a slowly improving relative performance for the index which may be reflected in the Nasdaq over the coming days. 

February lows undercut - new lows beckon

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Friday saw the end of support from Februray and March swing lows as sellers closed the week in total control.  We now have to consider the possibility of measured move lower.  Some indices are closer to this target than others. The nearest measured move target is the S&P.  It's target is 3,977 which is only one or two days worth of selling to get there; this level was formerly resistance in January 2021 and now has the potential to be support. On the weekly chart, momentum is not entirely oversold and ideally I would like to see it tag a level last seen in March 2020.  

A last chance saloon for indices

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The Monday reversal wasn't enough to light a fire under bulls as sellers quickly returned to reverse all of that gain.  Indices are now left with just the lows of February to hang on too, but even that is under pressure for the Russell 2000. The Russell 2000 had looked like it was going to lead a recovery when it broke out of its base in March, but the resulting 'bull trap' did what most 'bull traps' do and reversed all the way back to the lows of the base and then break support. Technicals are net bearish but momentum is at least oversold - although price crashes occur from an oversold condition. Because we have a test of support there is a buying opportunity, but keep the stop tight. 

Buyers stop the rot but damage done

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Today's recovery has offered the potential for a bottom and the end of the decline from March highs, but it leaves lead indices vulnerable to the undercut.  One day's buying does not necessarily equate to a reversal, but today's action will give aggressive buyers something to work with (using a loss of today's lows as a stop). Best of the action was the S&P as it ended with a bullish hammer, but reversal candlesticks need oversold momentum to strengthen their credentials and we don't have that here.

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