The bounce off January swing lows tapped out Friday as traders were keen to take profits on higher volume distribution.  In the case of the S&P there was a confirmed 'sell' trigger in relative performance over the Russell 2000 along with an On-Balance-Volume 'sell' trigger.  Friday also delivered a trendline break and an undercut of the 200-day MA for a second time in less than a month.  Intermediate term stochastics were also rebuffed at the mid-line, another sign we are in a bearish market. We are probably looking at a measured move lower to around 4,000; it would take a break of 4,600 to negate this target. 

Following the initial rebound it has been a struggle between buyers and sellers in asserting dominance over markets.  In the case of the Nasdaq, the index has managed to retain support of 13,885 as it looks to push beyond near term 20-day MA resistance. A fresh gain tomorrow would be enough to lead a challenge on its 50-day MA and/or its 200-day MA.  Technicals haven't changed to much with 'buy' triggers in the MACD and On-balance-Volume holding. Aggressive shorts may look to challenge the close of the breakdown gap from the bearish 'black' candlestick but would need to cover quickly if 14,505 was breached to the upside.  

Trading volume wasn't that high on Friday, but end-of-week buying helped prevent an acceleration of losses (and the fear) generated by Meta's loss in ad revenue. The January swing lows is looking more solid in the Nasdaq. There is a bit of a mini-support level around 13,885 which we will want to see hold on an end-of-day close basis (intraday violations are okay). We still have the MACD trigger and On-Balance-Volume 'buy'.

After some disappointing after hour earnings report we may see this market bounce move towards the next step, the confirmation test of the lows.  Will markets confirm the January lows as a swing low, or will markets evolve into some broader measured move lower? In the case of the Nasdaq we had a narrow 'black' candlestick at the top of the bounce - and at 20-day MA resistance. Bulls can take some comfort with the MACD trigger and On-Balance-Volume 'buy' signals, although the former occurred well below the bullish zero line. A move down would not be surprising - the question is whether it will go all the way back to its 200-day MA.

Buyers stewed over the weekend and started Monday with a period of buying across lead inside.  Buying volume was down on yesterday's (and recent buying) and given the Nasdaq gained over 3% it was a little disappointing not to see volume match the large percentage gain, although things were a little better for the S&P.  For the Nasdaq, there was no fresh 'buy' signals, although On-Balance-Volume is on the verge of a new trigger. 

Friday was a good day for bulls and a nice finish to the week.  Best of the action probably belonged to the Nasdaq as it bounced off the 200-day MA. The index closed above Thursday's open in what is shaping up as a week long swing low. Technicals are net bearish with relative performance accelerating away from the index, but if the Nasdaq can build from Friday it will attract buyers and improve the technical picture. 

Monday's buying should have followed with gaps higher and the start of a recovery rally.  Instead, we had no gap, a tentative bounce, and now a move into the spike lows of Monday - rarely a good sign for bulls. The Nasdaq is easing back to its 200-day MA for a second test in less than a week.  A second test over such a short period is rarely a good thing and despite registered accumulation it's hard to see how accelerating technical weakness could deliver a bounce now.