For those with a long hold time frame, buying here is not to bad a thing to be doing.  Those Tik Tok traders looking to steal a profitable trade are unlikely to fare too well as whipsaw becomes a real issue based on the sharp uptick in volatility.   The Nasdaq 100 had a enjoyed a sustained period of low volatility for most of the 2010s, but since breaking from this period of (volatility) consolidation in 2018 it has been steadily rising. Luckily, markets had enjoyed a sustained period of gain despite Covid, but as the virus enters the latter stage of its infectious cycle the 'sell the news' has made an early start, and this creates the volatiltiy we are seeing now.  

Options expiration disguised some of the selling volume, but Friday was still an ugly day for markets.  The Nasdaq wasn't able to stick around its 200-day MA for very long and once that support was lost it became hard for buyers to drum up any enthusiam.  Technicals are net negative and the index is sharply underperforming relative to the S&P.

Today was not a good day for bulls, even if the most recent swing low held as support, the nature of today's candlesticks was bearish with the likelihood for a follow through down particularly high.  In the case of the Nasdaq, there was a confirmed break of the 200-day MA although the index has moved into an oversold condition. The spike low of 14,630 is unlikely to hold but there is an outside chance we could see a new hammer/spike low with Wednesday finishing with a close above 14,630. 

Friday was a defense by bulls but the frequency of the support test is a concern. The Russell 2000 is looking the most vulnerable as it attempted a (failed) bullish piercing pattern. Friday's buying barely cut into Thursday's selling but the index is outperforming the Nasdaq. but it will need to push from here if it's not to collapse. Either way, I'm not liking Friday's action...

No surprise given the selling which has come before that the nascent rallies now find themselves moving into areas of prior supply. Today's candlesticks are not great but are more neutral in tone than outright bearish. For the Nasdaq, we had a bearish 'black' candlestick below all key moving averages. Supporting technicals are all bearish and there hasn't been enough of a recovery in relative performance to suggest this bounce can last much longer.  

Today effectively confirmed the swing low is in development across indices, but it's still early days if today's buying is to be reflected in a rally. The first challenge is to make it back to the last swing high.  For the Nasdaq, this means mounting a challenge of 16,000 as the 200-day MA has played as a launch point for this swing low.  Technicals remain net negative. 

Well the Nasdaq wasn't able to break through 16,000 resistance, it's now looking at cutting below 14,900 support.  The 200-day MA is nearby at 14,681 and is looking a more likely support test that maintaining current levels.  Not surprisingly, there was an acceleration in the relative loss of the Nasdaq to the S&P with technicals net bearish.  Volume is a balance between sellers and buyers and the likelihood is that we have trading range in development.