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Russell 2000 adds a little bullish gloss

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There wasn't a whole lot to add today's action as 200-day MAs dominate near term action. The only index which offered a little kicker was the Russell 2000; it posted a small gain which left it nestled against declining resistance. It has the look of an index which wants to break out, but it's not there yet.

Small gains help keep indices near 200-day MAs

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Market reversals off 200-day MAs were stalled by Friday's low key buying. The Dow Jones Industrial was the one index which was above its 200-day MA heading into Friday and ended the week with a bullish hammer right on its 200-day MA. The Dow Jones Index had already cleared declining resistance at the end of January prior to breaking through its 200-day MA. To help with 200-day MA support there is the fast approaching 20-day MA. Collectively, there is a potential buying opportunity for a push to 26,300 (the last October swing high), stops on a loss of Friday's low.

Semiconductors kick on as bounce reaches extremes

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This bounce which kicked off in December has reached levels which are getting rich for many but not for the Semiconductor Index. The Semiconductor Index gapped higher which keeps it hugging the channel resistance line but also offers a buffer down to support; today's action registered as a breakout. Technicals are in good shape and relative performance is good.

Quiet Friday helped maintain indices breakouts

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Friday's action in the indices didn't do a whole lot, but what it did do was help carry last week's breakouts through the weekend. The breakouts were fairly modest and overhead resistance in the shape of 200-day MAs is still a concern for some indices, but last week's action is favorable for bulls. Tech indices were the primary driver last week with the Nasdaq clearing declining resistance with a decent looking breakout on higher volume accumulation; better still is the sharp advance in on-balance-volume - a sign of sustained interest from Big Money to participate in this rally. The Nasdaq does enjoy a relative performance advantage against the S&P, the question is whether it can sustain it.  It still has the 200-day MA to overcome but momentum and short term traders may still be able to eke out a trade on a test of this key long term moving average.

Bullish Accumulation

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A good day for bulls delivered a breakout in the Dow Jones Industrials Index and across the board accumulation for other indices Action in the Dow Jones Index delivered not just a break of declining resistance but a close above the 200-day MA. Technicals are net positive but not yet overbought.

And so the Shorts dance continues...

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It seems every market gain is soon followed by a loss (and a potential shorting opportunity), but each time shorts are left hung out to dry. Will this time be different? Probably not, but whipsaw trades remain a key risk after a bounce like the one we have seen. Of the low hanging fruit, we have a Dow Jones Index which has reversed off resistance (and 200-day MA), albeit with a small bullish hammer (the significance of which is reduced as the index is overbought on near term stochastics - but not on an intermediate time frame). The 50-day MA is available to use as support, and relative performance is positive versus the Nasdaq 100. While action suggests this will break through its 200-day MA, the short position has a small edge until proven otherwise.

Friday's Gains Squeeze Shorts But Don't Follow Through

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There wasn't a whole lot to Friday except that any shorts will have been squeezed by the morning gap. Luckily for them, there wasn't any follow through but there was higher volume accumulation; suggesting there are more bulls than bears - even after a +10% gain from lows.  Should markets undercut the nascent swing low from last Wednesday then there is still a good chance buyers will step in to defend the December low. The S&P didn't do a whole lot outside of the morning gap but neither was there any real change in supporting technicals. Assume bulls have control unless there is a close below 2,600.

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