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Sellers Challenge Breakouts But Markets Hold On

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Trump's tariffs sent markets on a bit of a spin but total selling, while ranked as distribution, didn't go above 1%. More importantly. the bullish setups from yesterday remain valid. Loses in the S&P took the index back to challenging the 'bear trap'. An open around 2,700 could offer a discounted long opportunity.

Small Caps Follow Through; 'Bear Trap' in S&P

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Yesterday had opened up bearish opportunities in Large Cap Indices but it was the Russell 2000 which ultimately delivered in favour of bulls. The Russell 2000 followed yesterday's successful test of support with a 1.5% gain today. With no overhead resistance and net bullish technicals there isn't any clear point of weakness.

Large Caps Signal Trouble

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There was a shot across the bows from Large Cap indices as the consolidations which were playing out the last few weeks took a step south.  For the S&P this amounted to a clear breakdown and the risk is further losses to take things back inside the 2,575-2,675 range; however, if this does occur I would look for further losses as the momentum which drove the initial advance fades. Not surprisingly, today's breakdown also came with technical 'sell' triggers for MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI

Base Building Continues

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Another Day inside the trading range, another day of waiting. Not a whole lot to say about Friday. The S&P remained tightly bound and confined to a narrow horizontal range. On-Balance-Volume switched to a 'sell trigger' as other technicals remained positive. The preferred trade is still an upside breakout from the hande.

Second Day of Bullish Defense

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The market had initially reacted to Trump's decision to cancel his North Korean summit before coming to its senses and finishing where it left off yesterday. For the Russell 2000 it was a bullish doji to follow the 'hammer'; those brave enough to buy the morning dip will be feeling confident as technicals remain bullish.

Successful Test of Breakout for Russell 2000

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Yesterday's losses were reversed by a decent recovery which effectively confirmed trading ranges and in the case of the Russell 2000 tagged breakout support. The small 'hammer' in the Russell 2000 is a picture-perfect reaction to the breakout.

Narrow Trading Ranges Set Up New Breakout Opportunities

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The past few days have seen markets shape narrow mini-trading ranges, each following breakouts from larger consolidations. Large Caps show this best The S&P cleared a dual 4-month and 6-week consolidation before shaping the past 8-day 'flag'. Look for a break of 2,740 and a push to challenge the next swing high at 2,800 - although a test of this should be enough to go on and challenge all-time highs.

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