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Bulls Lead Out of Coil

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Action into today had looked to offer bears the advantage, but it was a morning gap higher from buyers which gave bulls the initiative. Beyond the opening gap there wasn't too much more buyers were able to achieve, with the exception of the Russell 2000, but today's gains would be enough to put bears/shorts on the defensive.  The lack of upside follow through may offer more aggressive shorts an opportunity. The Dow made a clean upside break of the consolidation.

The Perfect Coil

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The indices had another inside day (in a series of inside days) to set up a good swing trade play. With the emergence of spike highs it would suggest a break lower is the favoured move (along with indices performing relatively weak against their peers), but if shorts jump the gun and markers emerge from the coil higher then those shorts will be forced to cover - fueling fresh buying. The S&P is showing this coiling action best:

Distribution Friday

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This was the first day bears have been able to apply pressure since the election. It is now four days since markets pressured highs, and for the S&P, it was the third distribution day since the last accumulation day. While the S&P is drifting a little off course, it's still able to make relative performance gains against the Russell 2000. Money may start cycling from Small Caps to more defensive Large Cap stocks.

Fed Influences Dip Buying

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The Fed's announcement for faster rate hikes killed off my EURUSD trade and threw markets into a state of confusion. Traders had looked to regain their edge today, but late selling was enough to take some of the wind out of their sails. Having said that, it looked easier for profit takers to follow through on yesterday's Fed action than to scramble back in as buyers. The Russell 2000 had the best of the action, managing to retain the most of today' gains. There was a 'sell' trigger in the MACD, but given its relative position to the bullish zero line this looks to be a typical pullback action (which may not be done yet).

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