Still a week to go before regular service resumes.  However, a quick look of the markets since my last post points to the rude health of more speculative issues while more conservative 'blue chip' stocks glide sideways. Semiconductors have had an excellent summer.  This is a key economic bellwether and points to improved business conditions, helped by cheap copper prices. The burst higher over the early part of last week is consolidating its gains near the large white bar highs. This should also offer a boost to Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 stocks.

While away, markets have done their best to rally behind my back. The Brexit reaction has delivered surprising gains - even the FTSE 100 has broken to new near time highs - and it would appear this surprise (is it?) has caught many players on the wrong side of the trade. It's hard to know where to go from here. The summer session is rarely one to get excited about and there is now a multi-year Brexit factor to consider along with a U.S. election to factor. It's hard to be a long term buyer here, but if you are already long there isn't much reason to sell either. Maybe as November approaches things will become clearer for U.S. markets. Market positives are the relative out-performance of Small Caps over Large Caps:

Mix of Work Travel and Vacation has me AFK until August 9th. Surprised to see markets pushing highs given Brexit, but market does what market does :) Posting again soon... You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' and Jani's . I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro , register through the banner link and search for "fallond". If you are new to spread betting , here is a guide on position size based on eToro's system. --- Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more. Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician for ChartDNA.com , and Product Development Manager for FirstDerivatives.com . I also trade on eToro and can be copied for free.

Typical, it always feels like markets make major moves while I'm away. So, in brief: [1] Markets (and more reliable forecast/betting markets) got the Brexit vote horribly wrong and it's going to be a long (long) time before market confidence returns: Broken Leave promises, broken Conservative and Labour parties,  a leaderless British government, a half-in/half-out Brexit with article 50 still to be administered, the Scottish/Northern Ireland problem, an EU which will look to throw the UK under the bus etc etc.  There are lots of questions to be answered before markets could consider breaking May highs (when markets had priced for a status quo vote). [2] What does this mean for Europe as a whole, or more pressing, the U.S. election? A Trump victory got a boost with the U.K. populist vote. Imagine how markets will react if Trump does win the November election... [3] The weekly charts had been consistent in forecasting long term weakness. I had highlighted this here if you

Markets plumped for a non-Brexit. While markets closed higher there wasn't the volume to suggest a great degree of confidence in the finish.  As of writing, it would appear the market 'got it right' and an opening gap higher will emerge. What bears will be looking for is a bearish 'black' candlestick, which is a close below open despite a higher close than previous session (day). The S&P is on course to tag upper broadening wedge resistance. Watch for a MACD trigger 'buy' as bulls look to press their advantage.

With Thursday's vote coming up, it's looking unlikely markets are going to make a sudden move before then. The S&P posted a small gain and helped to relieve the pressure exerted on bulls by yesterday's late selling.

A positive day on suggestions Brexit may not happen invited bulls back to market, Action to this point had the look of a pullback swing low (at least as from Thursday's action), so it was easy for buyers once it was clear there was a strong premarket. What was disappointing was the late sell off, which probably did more damage than Friday's selling, but this can be rectified with a Tuesday close inside the upper part of today's intraday range. For the S&P, today's action meant an inverse hammer crossover of the 20-day and 50-day MAs. It's interesting to see stochastics [39,1] court the bullish midline in what would traditionally be a buying opportunity - so on the chance bulls are able to open the S&P above today's close then today's damage on the intermediate time frame (up to 3 weeks) may be slight.