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Further Selling - But Markets Range Bound

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It will rank as another distribution day for markets, but despite a second day of selling bears were unable to erase Friday's big bullish bonanza for Large Cap and Tech indices. The only index to suggest bears are gaining some form of control is the Russell 2000. Today saw the trendline connecting September and November swing lows broken to the downside.  This has come with a sharp drop in relative performance against the aforementioned indices.

Small Caps Hut Hardest. Selling Volume Rises

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It's scrappy, but today was the turn of bears to attack Friday's gains. Not much to offer other than scalping day trades in this kind of market.  The index to suffer most was the Russell 2000. It lost over 1.5% as it reversed all of Friday's gain and then some. The index is close to a breach of the rising trendline, but did enough to finish on its 50-day MA. Action suggests bulls will try tomorrow. The S&P experienced modest selling volume. Not enough to rank as distribution, and not enough downside to break the 200-day MA as support. Technicals are still negative, apart from a strong relative performance gain against struggling Small Caps. The Nasdaq registered a distribution day, as today's selling returned On-Balance-Volume to a 'sell' trigger for the indicator. Other technicals remain weak. The price loss wasn't great, and the 20-day MA still plays as support, but bulls wouldn't have to do much to break the recent double top. Tomor

Market Surprises

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Just when bears look ready to squeeze, along come bulls to bid the market higher. The jobs report had an initial muted reaction, but bulls were able to push the failure of bears to capitalize on the figures to force them into covering. The only disappointment was the volume.  For a big news day, the lack of volume may come back to hunt bulls, but a new (higher) swing low is in play. The S&P will be looking to challenge 2,104. Technicals are with bears, with a 'sell' trigger in the MACD still in play, and On-Balance-Volume in distribution mode since the first November peak.  The index also regained its relative momentum against Small Caps.

Tough Day At The Office

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Santa was delivered a bit of a shock when sellers took yesterday's declines and added to them. Losses were substantial  - considering recent tight action - and came with confirmed distribution. The S&P came back to its 50-day MA, which may offer bulls a chance to develop a higher swing low. However, further declines which break 2,019 will open up the play for a lower high, lower low and a new downward trend. So tomorrow will need buyers to step up off the open if Santa isn't to disappoint.

Bulls Couldn't Do It

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It may amount to just a pause in the 'Santa Rally', but today's higher volume selling reversed most (all in some cases) of yesterday's gains and left indices in a bit of a limbo. The November rally remains intact, and the proximity of resistance probably made it easier for sellers to turn the screw. What would be worrying is if today's losses were to intensify as it would open up for another test of the August-September lows. It should be noted, the October low was a significant market breadth low and it won't be breached easily. The S&P lost its 20-day MA and is just above a flat-lined 200-day MA. I would see a defense of the 'bear trap' as a more important test, assisted by the fast rising 50-day MA.

Strong Gains

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Yesterday's modest losses were undone by today's swoop by buyers. This will have forced many shorts to cover, particularly those who decided to take advantage of yesterday's weakness.  The seasonally positive 'Santa rally' may be perfectly timed here if the November high can be taken out. The S&P reversed the move lower after it failed to crack support of the tight range. Bulls look to be making a better fist of this, and there is a good chance for some follow through higher. On the negative side, the index's relative performance remains a problem as it sharply underperforms against both Tech and Small Cap Indices. It also have negative technicals in the form of On-Balance-Volume and MACD, although the latter is just shy of a 'strong buy' signal.

Semiconductor Index Breaks 200-day MA

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Today offered a heavier than expected volume day post-holiday. The majority of this action was to the downside, but the Semiconductor Index bucked the trend.  The latter index was able to push above its 200-day MA as it posted a relative advantage against the Nasdaq 100. While the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 suffered losses today, both will be helped by strength in the Semiconductor Index.  All technicals for the Semiconductor Index are in the green, with a return of the MACD to a 'buy' trigger (above the bullish zero line - a bullish development).

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