Dylan Ratigan - Cool Headed Common Sense

Great piece by Dylan Ratigan - just go read the whole piece .  "Ultimately, peace and prosperity will not be made because we get rid of the animal instincts within us, the competitiveness, the passion, the need to argue. It will happen because we will use those instincts, as we did with the moonshot, to build a society that lets us take care of each other and solve our problems. And so we must figure out how to stop giving our consent and legitimacy to an unthinking mechanical beast that runs our lives, a beast which enslaves us to accounting mechanisms like debt ceilings instead of the shared prosperity we seek as a culture and society. We must figure out how to restore the integrity necessary to actually solve our problems and we must understand how to align all of our interests so we each have the incentives to solve them. That way, we can ensure our bridges don’t fall down and our job creation initiatives actually create jobs."

Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Did What They Had Too

After yesterday's sell off bulls had very little room to play with, but in the end they did what was needed, going straight for the jugular off the open. The only disappointment was the lack of volume. Trading for the past four days have established is an unusually broad intraday spread within which bulls and bears fight it out. By today's close bulls had the edge, but bears could easily step back in and try and walk the market down for a second time. So pressure has shifted from stretched buyers to squeezed shorts - who will break first? The open-close range in the S&P could have been cut-and-pasted for each of the past days. The only difference is the colour of the candlestick.The 'Death Cross' between the 50-d and 200-day MA failed to materialize today. Edging ahead of Large Caps were the Tech averages. Having had the benefit of softer losses yesterday the Nasdaq was able to push to a new closing high for the past 4 days. The Percentage of Nasdaq Stoc

Daily Market Commentary: Tomorrow Could Be Ugly

After Tuesday's gains I would have looked for a slow-mo walk down to the days' lows as the next step for the markets. Instead, markets took the fast track down and erased nearly all of yesterday's Ben move, and in the case of the Dow, even more. The only consolation was the lighter volume selling - but this could represent a lack of panic in the market. With domestic and French banks stirring more trouble it's hard to see a conclusion over the next few days. ($INDU) via Tomorrow will likely see the 'Death Cross' between 50-d and 200-d MAs in the S&P. Little else to add. Ditto for the Nasdaq. Although Tech stocks weren't as hard hit as Large Caps. ($COMPQ) via And Small Caps were caught in the middle. An inside day on an inside day, with a chance of another tomorrow. Should this happen it will set up a significant swing play. ($RUT) via What rational have buyers to step in? Any c

Daily Market Commentary: Techs Lead Recovery

It was another turgid day until Ben opened his mouth. Then the expected became the unexpected as buyers put the foot down and bought what they could, left, right and center. With the level of volatility in play it's very difficult to offer firm projections, with wide swings in both directions possible in a single day. So this post will be brief. Leading the recovery were tech stocks. The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 managed to make it back to yesterday's highs, although buying volume was below yesterday's selling. With the easy work done, now comes the hard part... ($COMPQ) via The Nasdaq 100 is the index most likely to test resistance and it could do so before the week is out. ($NDX) via Small Caps were next on the recovery list, gaining a respectable 7%, although it wasn't enough to reverse yesterday's 9% loss. Bulls will find further gains tougher to achieve. ($RUT)   via The S&P was th

Daily Market Commentary: Race to the Bottom - Measuring Gaps?

Today was the first day exhaustion gaps made appearances in the market. Indeed, gaps down from last Thursday may be measuring gaps, gaps which may help set a point when the decline may end. The S&P and Dow don't show gaps at the open so projections are less accurate. The S&P kicked off last Thursday at 1,260. To get there it had fallen 80 points from the last reaction high in mid-July, so a simple projection offered a target of 1,180. But as is clear from today's action it has been far surpassed with another 60 point loss. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq shows a very clear gap. The first phase is the drop from 2,862 to 2,532. The projected second phase starts from today's open at 2,447 and offers a measured target of 2,117. ($COMPQ) via While the semiconductor index moved even further away from its channel. A measured move target for this index is close to 278. ($SOX) via Finally, Small Caps took a who

Weekly Market Commentary: Channels Break

Okay - the title is hardly a surprise given the events of last week. Yes, bullish channels are history but a new bearish channel needs a rally to define upper channel resistance. Not to mention, an extended sideways consolidation is the more favored outcome since markets don't typically swing from one trend to another. The US downgrade will make it interesting for Monday, but buying the bad news might be the better play, particularly if there is a gap down on the open. Last week's selling was as much about U.S. debt woes as European troubles - so the downgrade isn't really 'news', but with the weekend to stew over the news it might offer the capitulation this decline requires. The 8% hit in the Nasdaq finished within range of 2,535 support (weekly support needs a broader brush stroke when defining areas of support and resistance). Whether support holds will depend on what is lost in the first half of the week is recovered in the second. Nasdaq via StockCharts

Daily Market Commentary: Did Something Happen?

The streaks of red in today's charts put to bed any hope of 'bear traps' or trading range support. Markets were pummeled from start to finish by panicked sellers. This has resulted in three rapid in/out losing trades for me. The challenge is knowing when to attack and when to defend, so getting out with a small loss is a victory in the face of extreme volatility. Out of the three recent plays, only one I considered a disappointment because of poor liquidity on the exit. However, I will again be looking for long side opportunities tomorrow. While I think a significant rally is in the making, I don't think we will be seeing new highs in 2011. There is so much overhead supply it's going to be a scrappy move higher. The easiest part will be making back today's losses. For many indices there are no natural supply/resistance levels until markets make to early-2011 trading range lows. Losses in the S&P totally wiped yesterday's attempted bullish 'ham


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