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Daily Market Commentary: Risk at 50-day MAs Paid Off

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For defenders of the 50-day MA it was another good return for the risk takers. The S&P went from a channel break to a potential bear trap as support was regained. Volume climbed to register a modest accumulation day. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq opened just above its 50-day MA and was able to finish modestly higher after an intraday violation. Volume was well down on the previous day's selling. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com The Russell 2000 has been the most volatile these past few weeks making it good day trade material. But despite the intraday swings it has been honoring channel support, which has give bulls something to play with (not to mention the 50-day MA). ($RUT) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq 100 finished much like the Nasdaq with a defense of the 50-day MA. But unlike the Nasdaq, it has a bull trap to deal with. ($NDX) via StockCharts.com Finally, the semiconductors finished with an indecisive doji at the 50-day MA. If there is an index set fo

Daily Market Commentary: Worrying Developments For Bulls

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The market rallies which have been in play since September experienced another speed wobble on their ascent higher. The S&P closed outside of channel support on higher volume distribution. It has only the 50-day MA to look too for support as technicals are wavering too. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq has struggled since it broke from its slower ascent channel. The fourth major selloff in nine days took the index back to its 50-day MA. But this test looks like it will be one too many for bulls to defend. Volume climbed to register significant distribution. The breakdown gap from February is looking ominous. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com The Russell 2000 hasn't given up the fight. With the 50-day MA hugging channel support bulls have the benefit of converged support to work with. Will it be enough? Technicals struggling. ($RUT) via StockCharts.com Whereas the S&P broke channel support, the Dow Jones index only lost enough to drop to channel support. Like the

Weekly Market Commentary: Higher Volume Accumulation - But Little Change

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Plenty of huff, but not alot of puff as markets enjoyed some higher volume accumulation, but were unable to add some points on the board. The Nasdaq remained hemmed in by resistance. Nasdaq via StockCharts.com As the Nasdaq Bullish Percents gave their first 'sell' signal (the MACD) ($BPCOMPQ) via StockCharts.com The Russell 2000 is holding support of spike lows to 800. ($RUT) via StockCharts.com Meanwhile the S$P is doing a good job of defending 1,300. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com As the S&P Bullish Percents succumb to a 'sell' trigger in the MACD. ($BPSPX) via StockCharts.com So not much change on the week - bulls defended lows for a second week which offers something on which to build. But with market breadth continuing to breakdown (bullish percents are bearish like the percentage of stocks above the 50-day MA) any push higher might be short lived. Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director f

Daily Market Commentary: Nasdaq 100 Breaks Into Gap

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Bulls grabbed the opportunity offered by the defense of 50-day MAs or channel support and pushed indices higher. The big change was the bear trap and breakout in the Nasdaq 100. The index pushed into the prior gap down, setting up a potential challenge of all-time highs at 2,403.5. Volume even climbed to register a mild accumulation day. ($NDX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq is close (or has completed?) to a breakout of its own. A close above 2,800 would confirm and complete a new bear trap. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com Keeping a lid on proceedings is the semiconductor index. It too could start a new breakout - but there is a fine line between breakout and breakdown. ($SOX) via StockCharts.com Finally, the S&P played perfectly off channel support (for a second time in two weeks). It had the benefit of bullish technicals which may help build this newly created rally. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com After a substantial one-day gain it looks likely Friday will be case of c

Daily Market Commentary: 50-day MAs Defended Yet Again

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Yesterday's selling on volume had all the makings for a bearish follow through. However, bulls were again able to step in and hold support. For the S&P this support came at the channel. Volume was lighter but the narrow range makes it easier to place a swing trade; trade break of high/low and place stop on the flip side of today's range. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq was more vulnerable given it had dropped outside of its channel for a second time with a powerful breakdown gap. Despite holding its 50-day MA just a few days ago, it was again left to bulls to defend the moving average in the space of a few days. Buying volume was light - another reason to be suspicious. A push to 2,670 remains favoured but while the 50-day MA holds it is a moving average 'buy'. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com The Russell 2000 is evolving into a more gentle ascent, but it did well to defend its 20-day MA. The bearish divergence in the MACD is more of a concern. ($RUT)

Daily Market Commentary: S&P At Support But Tech Breaks

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A tricky day for the markets. The S&P fell back to channel support, the second big drop in six days representing losses not yet seen for this rally. Technicals are mixed, a 'sell' trigger in the +DI/-DI followed a 'sell' trigger in the MACD, although On-Balance-Volume remains bullish. A test of the 50-day MA (and therefore a break of the channel) looks likely by the end of the week. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq honored last week's breakdown gap, dropping back to its 50-day MA and outside of its rising channel. Volume climbed to register a distribution day. The defense of the gap suggests there is more power to this selloff than in previous attempts to push this index lower. Tomorrow could see a significant follow through lower - taking it close to 2,670 support. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com It was the same story for the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) via StockCharts.com And semiconductor index. The break of the channel confirms the end of the long standi

Daily Market Commentary: Bear Traps or Shorting Opportunity?

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It was another eventful day for some key markets. Large Caps were relatively quiet; the S&P added 0.5% which was enough to regain the 20-day MA but volume was light. Technicals improved with a bullish cross between +DI/-DI. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq managed a clear bear trap after last week's successful test of its 50-day MA. Monday's black candlestick is typically viewed as bearish, but the small decline back to 20-day MA support offers an opportunity for bulls to push on. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com The premise for a bullish reversal in the Nasdaq is helped by a larger bear trap in the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above its 50-day MA. ($NAA50R) via StockCharts.com But the picture for the Nasdaq 100 is not so optimistic. Monday's bearish black candlestick sat on resistance (former channel support) and offers a better shorting opportunity as part of the gap breakdown. ($NDX) via StockCharts.com The semiconductor index is caught in the middle

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