Daily Market Commentary: Channel Breaks Hold

Friday saw breaks from rising channels which held for a second day. The S&P held on to the 20-day MA but the early rally ran out of steam and closed at the days low. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq took it a step further by breaking below the 20-day MA. The 50-day MA is the next downward target. via The Russell 2000 made it back to rising channel support. If there is upside tomorrow it's going to happen here. ($RUT) via The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA had a confirmed 'sell' trigger. Other breadth indicators will likely soon follow. ($NAA50R) via Tomorrow, bulls can look to the Russell 2000 with a stop below today's lows (i.e. channel support). Shorts will find the tech averages more appealing with stops above the 20-day MA. Follow Me on Twitter Build a Trading Strategy Business in Zignals Subscribe to one of 58 trading strategies covering US, UK, Canada, Forex, ETFs,

Weekly Market Commentary: Breakouts in Trouble

It was a troubling close for indices as Tech breakouts struggled and S&P breadth continued to weaken. The S&P lost its push to new 2010 highs, leaving a bull trap, but has support at the triangle breakout to look too. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq left behind a bull trap on the large bullish head-and-shoulder pattern. There is still a chance for a push back above 2,535 on what has the potential to be a significant long term (bullish) move. Nasdaq via The Nasdaq faces another struggle with the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks Above 50-day MA also on a bull trap with respect to the declining resistance breakout. I suspect this bull trap will be harder to reverse and this breadth indicator will fall to a pivot low (sub-30%) before recovering. Therefore, the likelihood of the bull trap reversing in the Nasdaq is looking less likely. ($NAA50R) via Add to this, a Summation Index at resistance and the short term picture for the Nasdaq

Daily Market Commentary: Support Holds For A Second Day

Bears took another crack at beating the markets and while the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 fell out of their channels yesterday, the S&P and Dow held on to theirs. Tight intraday action for the S&P left the index right on channel support; tomorrow will either see a decisive break or a respectable bounce. Room to play on the swing off Thursday's high/low. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq gave up channel support but was able to defend the gap and the 20-day MA. There was a MACD trigger 'sell', albeit from a flat-lined position. A break of the 20-day MA would set up for a move to the 50-day MA. ($COMPQ) via The Russell 2000 has no such considerations, trading in the middle of its rising channel with technicals holding the bull side. ($RUT) via The semiconductor index opened at support and broke through - getting close to its 20-day MA - before rallying to close higher. Pending 'Golden Cross' between 50-day and 200-day

Daily Market Commentary: Channel Support Defended

Yesterday's weakness followed through in the morning to tests of channel support for Large Cap indices. The Nasdaq closed its recent gap before finishing higher. The S&P made a picture perfect test of channel support and the close inside yesterday's real body sets up a possible move to channel resistance. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq came back to close the gap. With the gap closed the Nasdaq needs to push on, otherwise seller confidence will grow the longer 2,590 plays as resistance. ($COMPQ) via The Nasdaq 100 offered another possibility (the same is true for the Nasdaq) - a channel breakdown. ($NDX) via Meanwhile, the semiconductor index is back testing trading range support. ($SOX) via Bulls will want to press the advantage of the morning recovery. Look for intraday supply around 1,220 with a 1,226 break required to negate the intraday bull trap from yesterday. Let's see how bulls play the ch

Daily Market Commentary: Dips Lower

Bulls wavered a little as higher volume selling pushed markets slightly lower. The S&P stopped just shy of a test of rising channel support. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq closed with a bearish engulfing pattern, but Tuesday's intraday fake breakout didn't tumble far enough down to close last week's breakout gap. Tomorrow could see this challenge completed. ($COMPQ) via The Russell 2000 lost the most on a relative basis but still plenty of room before channel support is tested. ($RUT) via Today's action did not result in a fundamental shift to bears, but the selling has put bulls on notice. If there is any follow through (down) tomorrow it will take indices out of their rising bull channels and give shorts something to work with. Follow Me on Twitter Build a Trading Strategy Business in Zignals Subscribe to one of 58 trading strategies covering US, UK, Canada, Forex, ETFs, Frankfurt, Australia or Iris

Daily Market Commentary: Quiet Start for the Week.

Bulls didn't push their advantage as bears stayed away. The result was a very narrow days trading. Swing traders can play a break of S&P high/lows with room to spare to both channel support and resistance. ($SPX) via The downside gap for the Nasdaq is looking a tempting fill - although it could follow through down to the 20-day MA. ($COMPQ) via While the Russell 2000 is very close to channel resistance. CCI is very extended and a pullback to the 20-day or 50-day MA can't be far away. ($RUT) via Bulls have the momentum, but tight trading action narrows the margin for error. It won't take much to spark fear selling in the market, but shorts will be playing it tight lest they get handed another hiding. Follow Me on Twitter Build a Trading Strategy Business in Zignals Subscribe to one of 58 trading strategies covering US, UK, Canada, Forex, ETFs, Frankfurt, Australia or Irish Markets Dr. Declan Fallon,

Weekly Market Commentary: Market Push New Weekly Highs

It was a good week for the indices as they piled on the gains on heavier volume accumulation. The weeklies offer clear defense points going forward with the first test appearing in the coming week. The S&P cracked the last reaction high of 1,219 and is on course to test the reaction lows of 2006 and 2008 at 1,236. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq made a clean break of 2,535 in what is looking like a 3-year (bullish) head-and-shoulder reversal. The 2007 high of 2,861 is next on the list. Nasdaq via The Nasdaq 100 pushed yet another breakout and is very close to clawing all the losses from 2007. Like the Nasdaq, it has broken out from a bullish head-and-shoulder pattern. ($NDX) via The Russell 2000 still has a way to go to get where Tech and Large Cap indices are. The overall lack of performance in this index (although not last week) is perhaps the most worrying aspect of the cyclical bull market theory. ($RUT) via


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