Posts

Daily Market Commentary: Semiconductors Breakout

Image
Semiconductors made a clean break of resistance and pulled away from its trading range in one of the few trades offered from the open. Given the extended nature of the break, a backtest of new support (trading range resistance) may occur over the coming days. ($SOX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq finished with a second 'Shooting Star' which took some of the gloss over the heavy volume gain. In contrast to the semiconductor index, action in the Nasdaq had the look of bearish churning. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com Gains the S&P required a redraw of the rising channel. Despite the risk of churning in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100, there is still a good chance the rally will continue towards new channel resistance. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Russell 2000 is similarly positioned with a new rising channel. Today's gain was enough for a fresh MACD trigger 'buy' above the bullish zero line; a very positive development. ($RUT) via StockCharts.com For tom

Daily Market Commentary: More of the Same

Image
Not much to add on yesterday other than some heavy volume buying. The buying didn't do enough to push markets much beyond their open price, but did enough to recover losses triggered in mid-afternoon trading. All-in-all it was a quiet day given it was a Fed and election results day. The election results were of no surprise (other than the 'dumb' logic of independents going from Obama to Tea Party in two years) and the outcome will be political gridlock. Markets will prefer this environment over one extreme or the other so the lack of reaction is of no great consequence. Markets are in 'hot' territory so further scrappy sideways trading can't be excluded. For the S&P keep an eye on the 20-day MA. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq is running along the lower band of its former channel. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com The Russell 2000 was able to hold on to yesterday's gains. ($RUT) via StockCharts.com But the semiconductor index made it

Daily Market Commentary: False Dawn

Image
A fake-out by bulls? A big gain for the Russell 2000 suggested there was real buying at work in the market. But looking at the volume gain in the other indices, the buying in the Russell 2000 might not be so bright. Technically, the Russell 2000 remains weak with the bounce off the 20-day MA the only source for optimism. The downside break of the rising channel remains. ($RUT) via StockCharts.com Action in the Nasdaq failed to impress. The narrow doji has the look of a 'shooting star' with a strong chance of a gap down tomorrow. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com The SP managed small gains, but not enough to break highs (although enough for a new closing high). ($SPX) via StockCharts.com With election results likely to trickle in it's hard to see a positive spin on the outcome. Sellers have the easier choice - is there a belief something positive could come out of the election results? I doubt it. Follow Me on Twitter Build a Trading Strategy Business in Zignals

Daily Market Commentary: Further Indecision

Image
Market Action has taken the look of a picket fence with a string of doji for Large Cap indices. The indecision is coiling market action towards this week's election. For the S&P the 20-day MA is playing as support, although the MACD histogram is increasing pressure to the downside. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq was a little more disappointing as it drifted out of its rising channel on a light loss. It's MACD moved to a 'sell' trigger - although the indicator had flatlined prior to the trigger, weakening the signal. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com The Russell 2000 gave up a little more but managed to hold the 20-day MA. It had already dropped out of its rising channel and technicals have substantially weakened. ($RUT) via StockCharts.com While the semiconductor index is just a few points shy of resistance. ($SOX) via StockCharts.com Note the sharp loss in form (particularly in technicals) for the Percentage Nasdaq Stocks Above 50-day MA. ($NAA

Weekly Market Commentary: Market Creep

Image
Markets finished the week slightly higher as breadth moved contrary to market gains. The S&P barely scrapped a gain as momentum cracked into overbought territory. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com Although S&P breadth has shifted to the downside. See how NYSE Summation Index reversed before it managed a challenge on declining resistance. ($NYSI) via StockCharts.com This reversal is clearer in the Percentage of S&P Stocks above the 50-day MA. If ever there was a call for a top in the S&P, this it it: ($SPXA50R) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq is fast approaching a 2008 reaction high c2,535. Stochastics are overbought, but not quite the levels of late 2009 / early 2010. Nasdaq via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq 100 has actually managed to get to the second of two reaction highs in 2007! Stochastics have also reached the rich levels of 2009/2010. Can this be true! Watch Nasdaq 100 for leads next week. ($NDX) via StockCharts.com But as for the S&P, breadth f

Daily Market Commentary: Markets Drift Out of Rising Channels

Image
Given I missed yesterday's market action the net sum of the past two days saw markets drift outside of their rising channels, but this action occurred without triggering a sell off. The S&P shows this clearly, although the break of the August-October channel is riding channel resistance (turned support) of the July-October rally and the 20-day MA. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The drift was a little more subtle in the Nasdaq. Today's close looks like a bearish 'hanging man' for the rally. A gap down and lower close Friday will confirm. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com The Russell 2000 was not so subtle in its action, suffering a more traditional down day. There was also a 'sell' trigger in the ADX to add to ones for the CCI and MACD. However, it did defend the 20-day MA for a second day. ($RUT) via StockCharts.com However, semiconductors continue to pound the numbers. A big day yesterday glossed over lackluster action in lead markets. ($SOX) via Stock

Daily Market Commentary: Toys With Support

Image
This time it was bulls who toyed with bears. The S&P finished with a doji at support as my anticipated morning sell off failed to stick. The S&P was able to return to its opening price, but perhaps more interestingly, it was unable to break above intraday resistance of 1,187.5 from Monday. Watch this level for Wednesday as shorts may attack aggressively here. AAAAAAAAAB S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) : " via StockCharts.com " The Nasdaq gapped below rising channel support but was able to make it a few points above yesterday's close. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com The semiconductor index also closed with a doji, but there was enough bullish momentum to reverse the early technical bear signs. ($SOX) via StockCharts.com Other bearish markers in the indices haven't reversed yet, keeping with their net bullish technical picture. Tomorrow is a toss up but the fact that indices are failing to push off their rising channel support suggest bears cou

Archive

Show more