Stock Market Commentary: Holds Gains as Sentiment Improves

Yesterday was an important day technically with all round breakouts and improved market breadth. The markets did little today (which is good) but it could be down to market breadth to say more about how far this rally can go. The percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA has seen more stocks break through and hold their 50-day MA as the November rally has advanced. At 45% it is well off its highs (which can be viewed as bullish or bearish) but it does leave on the table the potential for a July like rally. The slower moving Summation Index turned bullish yesterday. At -311 is 800 points from highs and some 700 from reaction lows, so again there is room for maneuver on either side of the equation. But given its relatively low volatile behavior and current bullish cross it looks to be favoring a new rally. Finally, the Bullish Percents have yet to trigger a 'buy', but are only a short distance away from generating a signal from 58% support. In July, a similar signal support

Stock Market Commentary: Breakout!

Following the lead of Large Caps were breakouts for the S&P, Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. But not to be out-done, there was a second breakout for the Dow to take it outside of its 5-month channel. All breakouts were achieved on higher volume - marking another day of accumulation for the markets. Relative strength has swung back in favor of tech over large caps - a bullish development. But small caps continued to underperform, although they had a good day today with a net bullish turn in technicals. The semiconductors didn't disappoint either by breaking through its 50-day MA. Of breadth indicators, the Nasdaq Summation Index made a bullish cross of its 5-day EMA from a relatively oversold position. Supporting technicals also edged higher with a 'buy' in the Ultimate Oscillator. Tomorrow will be interesting. Breakouts in play but can support hold on the next round of weakness? A quiet consolidation day would be an ideal scenario for the markets. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Mark

Weekly Review of Publishers' Charts

What will last week's little rally bring to the markets at large? Anthony Caldaro of has illustrated a fifth wave move from the November low (hourly). If the fifth wave was to map the length of the first wave then it could take the S&P to 1,115. However, when you look at a monthly chart the strength of the rally looks questionable; and a 'B' wave of an 'ABC' is not good news for the coming years. However, once the 'ABC' completes the markets will be well positioned for the birth of the next major secular bull market (but I am looking towards 2015 as a guesstimate for the final low in the current secular bear market). Richard Lehman of has short term upward channels fast approaching longer, intermediate (and upward) channels. 11/15 -- Most indexes exited their blue minichannels from the first of November, but sideways, suggesting a wider channel was at work and that short term upward momentum is not yet co

Weekly Market Commentary: Slow Rollover Continues

Another week of point gains, but supporting technicals continue their downward descent. The S&P is very close to a MACD trigger 'sell' with Fibonacci retracements still in play; however, a break of 1,107 would favour a push perhaps as far as 1,222. The Nasdaq is fighting resistance which marked support in early 2008. Its MACD 'sell' is already in play. Although the Nasdaq 100 gives hope with its move into 'fresh air' and a possible move into the 2000s. But it does have a MACD trigger 'sell' to contend with. However, the positives in the Nasdaq 100 are undermined by the struggles in the Russell 2000 - and the Russell 2000 is more important from a leadership perspective. Small Caps lie well below resistance with MACD 'sell' and weakening long term stochastics (momentum) to consider. Market breadth has long been sided with the bears. The Nasdaq Summation Index has been on a 'sell' since July 10th. And the weakness in the Bullish Percent

Stock Market Commentary: Early Gains Unsustainable

Early strength showed promise, particularly for the beleaguered small caps and semiconductors, but endpoint indecision leaves a mixed tone and significant resistance to consider. On the plus side, there was a net bullish turn in technicals with the MACD trigger 'buy' in the Nasdaq. The Dow had the early look of breaking channel resistance but by the close it remained contained. The MACD trigger line is up against three month bearish divergence. Small caps had a mixed day; on the positive front was the MACD trigger 'buy' and stochastic 'buy', but the index itself remained contained by its 50-day MA. Semiconductors enjoyed a net positive day for technicals, but like the Russell 2000 it struggled to break its 50-day MA. Of breadth indicators, the Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MA is the only one to have firmed a reaction low on improving technicals - notably today's MACD trigger 'buy'. If there is to be further gains in the broader indices

Stock Market Commentary: Stall Out

Hardly surprising after yesterday's gains was the relatively quiet action today. The struggling indices had the weakest day; the Russell 2000 remains contained by its 20-day and 50-day MAs While the semiconductors had a relatively wide intraday range, but closed on an indecisive doji; Tuesday's finish was at the 20-day MA - will this be resistance? However, it was not all static. The S&P enjoyed a MACD trigger 'buy' - enough to turn technicals net positive. So can bulls produce some follow through after a day of rest? Although today was a relatively quiet day it will have helped bulls that yesterday's gains were not pegged back. The good news is that today's trading gives exit points below the day's lows for those looking for low risk or profit taking opportunities. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, . November 2009 has seen a significant upgrade and is on course to becoming the eBay of finance with our new Beta MarketPlace and a

Stock Market Commentary: Bullish Technical and Accumulation Day

It feels like it's summer all over again. For some indices this was the first accumulation day in weeks, but for all it was a significant technical improvement. The market has the look and feel of the July reaction low with market breadth in a very similar position. The Nasdaq enjoyed a solid break of the 20-day MA with a bull cross for stochastics, on-balance-volume and directional index [+DI > -DI]. Only the MACD has left to turn. There was enough buying to register a modest accumulation day, similar to the summer but below the buying of September. The Nasdaq 100 went a step better with a MACD trigger 'buy' and therefore a net bullish technical picture; note the strong out-performance relative to small caps. The Dow gives some indication as to what may come for the Nasdaq et al. A solid performance pushed it to a new closing high for the year with all technicals net green (today saw a MACD trigger 'buy'). Large Caps don't normally lead but that is not to s


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