Posts

Weekly Review of Stockcharts.com Publishers' Charts

Image
With the launch of the new Zignals website with its Trading System builder and all-in-one Dashboard I have had my hands full. But this week I can return my attention to the market. Today is producing what could be another big day for the market; but is it sustainable? Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveelliottwave.com has marked in what looks to be a new 5-wave structure down as part of an 'ABC' correction ('B' in place from October's high); the current move is wave 2 which should peak below October's high. Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview holds to a more bullish short term picture and bearish intermediate picture. With the VIX getting hammered it doesn't look like bulls will be giving up anytime soon (the VIX can and has been much lower). But Yong Pan has called 2 major distribution days inside of 5 as the start of the next down-leg (on an intermediate time frame - so the short term bullishness shouldn't have much juice left in the tank). But today has see

Weekly Market Commentary

Image
It was a week where bulls made the most daily headway, but the weekly picture offers a more bearish slant. Weekly market technicals all fell but momentum indicators still hold enough to stay on the bull side - just. The Nasdaq closed the week with a MACD trigger 'sell' but stochastics are comfortably overbought. The index also held 2,020 support. The Nasdaq 100 continued its battle around 1,702 support with a MACD trigger 'sell' Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 looks ready to test neckline support c517 Prior comments on the Bullish Percents still hold true; big down weeks don't immediately translate to market weakness. The Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MA is at a support low, but unlikely to be the low for the ongoing decline As the Nasdaq Summation Index is only halfway to its likely low Markets have probably seen their first significant reaction low for the decline, but I would be surprised if the current bounce makes it to new highs. However, that does

Stock Market Commentary: Bulls Start Well and Maintain It

Image
After Yesterday's close it looked like bears would run rampant, but instead what emerged was a gap higher and more improbable (in my opinion) run. Volume was a little disappointing but one can't deny the points on the board. First up, the Nasdaq cleared its 50-day MA. The Nasdaq 100 managed a little better; it broke through its 50-day MA and made it to its 20-day MA. The Dow enjoyed one of its biggest days - the kind of day last seen during the July bottom (without the volume). The Russell 2000 recovered the points it lost when it cracked through 576 support. It's next fight is up at converging 20-day and 50-day MAs. Breadth indicators are close to an intermediate oversold condition and are mapping in a manner which is close to what I would have expected for them; given that, the rally should offer a little more legs. So watch those overhead 20-day and 50-day MAs. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com . November 2009 has seen a significant upgrade and is

Stock Market Commentary: Disappointment for Bulls

Image
The bright start made by bulls was quickly erased by the close as a combo sell-the-news 'Fed Factor' and House vote on credit card rates kicked in. While not outright bearish it does set up an aggressive play for shorts to push into Tuesday's gains. For the Nasdaq, prices are left clinging to channel support. Today's distribution makes holding support tomorrow more difficult with overhead supply at the 50-day MA available. Will this evolve into a head-and-shoulder (bearish) reversal pattern? If so, the right-hand-shoulder will emerge c2,165. The Dow is a good example of today's damage given it was repelled at the 20-day MA after major gains; shorts active here. The Russell 2000 finished with a bearish cloud cover candleline, although with stochastics oversold it's not a strong pattern. The 200-day MA is looking a needed test here. The semiconductors closed with an isolated gravestone doji - watch for a gap down tomorrow: For all intents, it's looking like

Stock Market Commentary: Bulls need more

Image
Disappointing day after yesterday's set up promised more. Volume was lighter and if it stays like this over the next couple of days it will favor the bears. The Dow stuck to its 50-day MA but technicals turned net negative The Russell 2000 enjoyed a decent 1.5% gain but closed a good percentage point away from resistance Tomorrow is another opportunity, but this time it feels like bulls are holding out for lower prices. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com . November 2009 has seen a significant upgrade to the site on the course to becoming the eBay of finance with our new Beta MarketPlace and a new rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard . Zignals now has new fundamental stock alerts , stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt and soon Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager , active fundamental system stock screener and trading system builder. New Forex and Index data.

Stock Market Commentary: Scrappy action

Image
With a few minutes left to go it looks like bulls are creating demand at support. The Nasdaq is lingering around a convergence of horizontal resistance at 2,050 and rising channel support. However, supporting technicals are net negative; the last such change to net bullish was over 6-months ago. The Dow is defending its 50-day MA but has struggled to make back early day gains. However, it's technicals are clinging to net bullish. But the S&P has turned technical net negative While the Russell 2000 is on course for the 200-day MA Today looks like a pause in the downward trend. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com . November 2009 has seen a significant upgrade to the site on the course to becoming the eBay of finance with our new Beta MarketPlace and the first real rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard . Zignals now has new fundamental stock alerts , stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt and soon Canadian stocks, tabbed stock

Weekly Stock Market Commentary:

Image
First real damage done to the indices in a quite a while. It's not unusual for sharp counter moves in a well established trend to snap back to former levels - but seasonal factors may prevent this from happening here. Fib retracements are looking a good bet for a downside target with the S&P showing clustered price across its fib range of 835-939. Tech took the harder hit with the Nasdaq 100 down almost 5% with a bull trap A degree of similiarity between now and early 2007 in the Bullish Percents One thing in favour of a snap back rally is the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA - it's close to oversold The Russell 2000 was perfectly pegged by resistance with a new MACD trigger 'sell' to boot - the first index to do so on the weekly chart. So - all-in-all - it was the first week of significance weakness in a while. The next bounce will likely be jumped upon by shorts. Indices 20-day MAs are likely to be attacked aggressively by shorts. The de-Santa rall

Archive

Show more