Stock Market Commentary: False Hammers

Markets did well to recover early losses with many closing on what some may consider 'bullish hammers'. However, the position of stochastics suggest markets are not oversold enough to strengthen these candlestick patterns to their true bullish form. In addition, gap downs trump bullish candlesticks. The Nasdaq did give bulls some reason for cheer with its defense at the 50-day MA: The Russell also reversed before reaching its 200-day MA: But the SOX flashed a weak 'spinning top' and lost its 50-day MA in the process; this is bad news for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. This looks ready for the 200-day MA. The problem for bulls is reading too much into the late afternoon rally; a break of Monday's lows could see a series of quick losses emerge. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Weekly Stock Charts review from Publishers

Are bears gaining the upper hand? Big week ahead for bulls. What had the ers had to say about it? As an aside, there is some odd behavior with respect to the hit counts on the public list; up until the last few weeks the rankings had been remarkably consistent but it's shifting now. George Zimmerman of takes top spot. He shows the weekly NYSE Bullish Percent down at its 20-week EMA although this hasn't been an inflexion point in the past. More likely this EMA is used to denote direction of the S&P? The daily is on a 'sell' trigger (20-day EMA cross) Peter at Cobrasmarketview has a couple of bullish and bearish signals emerging on the short term window, but neutral signals predominate. Intermediate term nearly all 'sell' signals. Distribution creep over the past couple of weeks: Head-and-shoulder bearish pattern becoming more evident for the SPY: Within the context of a larger bullish head-and-shoulder pat

Weekly Market Commentary: Odd Divergences

The shortened trading week brought up some odd behavior in some of the indices. The Nasdaq lost a couple of percent on the week but long term stochastics [39,1] actually gained. However, the MACD histogram played to form and continued to (negatively) diverge from its high. The break of 1,759 resistance in the index held. Long term stochastics [39,1] for the S&P stayed hemmed in by resistance at the mid-line; the head-and-shoulder return down to 800s looks the most likely projection, but even this target feels too obvious. The Nasdaq 100 had pushed the highest of the indices over the past few weeks, trading around 2006 reaction lows - but this microbreakout is under threat even if longterm stochastics [39,1] gained. Market Breadth showed a confirmed technical sell in the Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MA: The S&P displayed confirmed breadth 'sell' trigger in the Bullish Percents: To follow the June 'Sell' signal Shorts will be building in confidence

Active Trader Magazine: Markets and News Editor

Apply for Job Description Magazine and Web publisher seeks financial journalist to write and edit trading strategy features and report on trading industry developments for the benefit of our readership of independent investors and traders. Responsibilities: Covering the financial markets and the investment/trading industry beyond the generalities of the mainstream press. Rewriting/editing stories, managing contributing writers and editors, and writing original features about trading and investments (stocks, futures, options, and forex/currencies). Requirements At least 3-5 years of journalism/editorial experience, or an equivalent blend of financial market analysis and editorial experience. A writing/editing test will be mandatory for all applicants under consideration. E-mail résumé and writing samples (required) to [ Click Here to Email Your Resumé ] (include "financial editor" in the subject line). Or, fax to (312) 775-5423. Walk-ins or phone calls will be removed from co

Stock Market Commentary: Hello Bears!

A bad day for large caps saw the Dow slice through its 50-day and 200-day MA with the S&P losing the 50-day MA. Any improvement in the technicals for the S&P were quickly erased. Luckily, volume was not excessive so this may play as nothing more than a once off blip or it could suggest a level of complacency on the part of bulls who have managed to maintain this rally in the face of broad skepticism. Ironically, the index which looked like it was going to take the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 down, the semiconductor index, had a quiet day. A narrow doji on the 50-day MA didn't change anything and the possibility of further gains are not off the table. Small Caps also had it rough as the mid-June breakdown could only run alongside former support before it dropped through its 50-day MA: The July holiday weekend means no trading for Friday so it will be a edgy weekend for bulls. One more day of downside over the next couple of days may end any hope bulls had of challenging May/June h

Black Gold Rally Done?

A weakening dollar will keep commodity bugs aflutter but what can it mean for commodity prices; gold and oil in particular? The chart below shows my June 22nd annotations for the EURUSD which are still in play. If the dollar was to weaken another 10% what impact will this have? Looking at the historical relationship between oil and gold prices any spike into the upper 20s (ie when gold trades at 25-30 times the price of oil) has been a good opportunity to buy oil. This has shown itself well on the recent spike. Prior to 2000, spike lows in the ratio in the 6-10 range have not been a good time to own either gold or oil. But the questions the aforementioned chart asks are [1] Is now the time to sell the oil given the relationship has dropped to the 1997 spike low at 13.50 when oil prices peaked? [2] Will a further deterioration in the dollar potentially see this ratio fall back to sub-10s (although a weak dollar will boost both oil and gold prices, but would oil benefit more)? [3] What

Stock Market Commentary: Indecision

The last few days have seen some tight trading with doji or small real bodied candlesticks dominating action across the indices. One area which saw some bullish strength was the switch in relative strength from Large Caps to Small Caps; this left markets in their most bullish relative strength alignment ( Small caps > Tech > Large Caps ). This could be the basis for a budding rally but June highs need to be breached soon if momentum is to be maintained. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.


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