Thursday, July 02, 2009

Stock Market Commentary: Hello Bears!

A bad day for large caps saw the Dow slice through its 50-day and 200-day MA with the S&P losing the 50-day MA. Any improvement in the technicals for the S&P were quickly erased. Luckily, volume was not excessive so this may play as nothing more than a once off blip or it could suggest a level of complacency on the part of bulls who have managed to maintain this rally in the face of broad skepticism.

Ironically, the index which looked like it was going to take the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 down, the semiconductor index, had a quiet day. A narrow doji on the 50-day MA didn't change anything and the possibility of further gains are not off the table.

Small Caps also had it rough as the mid-June breakdown could only run alongside former support before it dropped through its 50-day MA:

The July holiday weekend means no trading for Friday so it will be a edgy weekend for bulls. One more day of downside over the next couple of days may end any hope bulls had of challenging May/June highs until probably the end of the year.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.