Intrade participants are looking at 60:40 split in favour of a Dow close above 11,000. The spread is not friendly with an ask of 67 and a sell at 55, but the way the current market is heading I wouldn't be surprised to see this hit 40:60 sometime in late October. The usual end-of-year rally will probably see the Dow safely over 11,000 by end of year but it will fun to watch this evolve . Get the Fallond Newsletter Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Well that was a bit of a turkey . Bears have really set the tone for the next few days and bulls will have to get their finger out if they are to halt this slide. Bullish Percents took a universal dive across the board. But the real casualty on the day was the NYSE. With such comprehensive damage it is looking more and more likely the Dow and S&P will follow suit down past July lows. Given the relative position of breadth indicators (neutral to overbought) there is room to see this evolve into a more substantial decline with the possibility of a bear trap relatively slim. I don't know if Russell 2000 support will be enough to save the market (August 25th comments still valid today): Get the Fallond Newsletter Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

After yesterday's hits to tech indices I assumed a definitive bearish stance, but since reading Richard Lehman 's update it may not be so. The index which will should the others higher - particularly as tech hits the ropes - is the Russell 2000. I am looking at the developing handle and so far so good for bulls. The Dow held its 50-day MA, so even in its struggles there is room for a support bounce (stochastics are neutral, so it's by no means a high probability event). Even those hard hit tech indices have support to look too. The Nasdaq has the 50-day MA and a band of support which stretches from 2,330 to 2,350. Get the Fallond Newsletter Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

I borrowed this chart from Bill at Vix and More , but the relationship sits at an important juncture. After Tuesday's sell off the relationship in volatility between the Nasdaq 100 and S&P looks set to change with a new downswing in the S&P favoured. At one level the VIX may have already broken resistance which may see a break of closing support for the S&P today: Get the Fallond Newsletter Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Well Gustav took the weekend headlines but in the end it caused trouble in places where no doubt the residents wished it went elsewhere; not the market cared as oil shed a few dollars (although it was natural gas prices which went on the rip during Katrina, oil prices barely budged). Maurice talked a little about Gustav, but his financials chart caught my eye: Maurice made a good comment here: There is no doubt that a recession is being priced into the stock market. Investors Business Daily just reported that '90 % of consumers believe that the economy is in recession.' But if a recession fails to emerge, then this market will be extremely oversold on a faulty economic outlook. The statistics continue to mount against the possibility of a recession as indicated by the first and second quarters of GDP. The rate cuts should come to the aid of the third and forth quarters. Technically: The intraday charts suggest more selling early next week. The 60-minute chart of the Russell 2K

I have to credit Uglychart with this find (dug it up from his archives). Dave Hermansen did not own a bird or a cage when he bought bird-cage.com, an online store, for $US1800 three years ago. He simply saw a website that was "very, very poorly done", and begged the owners to sell it to him. He then redesigned the site, added advertising and drove up traffic. Last December, he sold it for $US173,000. With the magic of the WayBackMachine you can see what changes were made from the time of his purchast to time of sale. You can see the archive data for Bird-cage.com here . So if he bought it in 2005 it probably looked like this (very '90s) In November 2005 he gave it a bit of a facelift (archives missing some JPEGs): In September 2006 the updates started to kick in with regularity: The final update before sale in December 2007 looked like this (October 2007): Which is similar to what it looks now . What I want to know is how many birdcages was he selling during the 3 year

Wow! I was really snoozing at the wheel but I have $337 to reloan in my KIVA account. All of this money has been made available thanks to subscribers to my newsletter, so even with the year that has passed at least some money has made a positive impact. Because of the number of loans made I won't detail each individually but newsletter members (and non-members) can see the complete list here . I see KIVA have a new map feature which shows where you loans have been made. Get the Fallond Newsletter Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website