I don't like when markets gap higher, lose momentum, but hold a higher close; this leaves them vulnerable to more selling the next day - particularly if such action occurs at the end of a rally (in an overbought state). We don't have this as markets have been range bound for a couple of weeks, even if overbought on intermediate stochatstics, but we need to be watchful. The S&P has been lingering near its 200-day MA as the 20-day MA fast approaches. There is a 'sell' trigger in the MACD, but other technicals are positive, including a particularly strong volume trend. While I would be bearish under such scenarios, this index is still in a bullish setup.

Trump's machinations cast a shadow on the market, but today's gap rally would have marked a very bullish reversal *if* this reversal occurred from an oversold market state, but this is not the case here. However, it's still a positive response to the various moving average tests. The bounce in the Russell 2000 ($IWM) was launched from the 20-day MA on higher volume accumulation. Technicals are net positive, but overall trading volume remains down on the selling that came before. The index is also sharply underperforming relative to the Nasdaq. However, I'm still liking for a move above $210.

It was going to happen at some point, but markets have started to ease back after an extensive rally. We have seen an increase in bullish (and a drop in bearish) Investor sentiment as the rally extended beyond its 200-week MA, to the point it's again at an inflection point, but perhaps an inflection point that the next leg down will confirm a major swing low.

While we wait for the Russell 2000 ($IWM) to push past the March swing high, we have a Semiconductor Index ($SOX) ready to break past a small 'bull' flag, using the 200-day MA to leverage the push higher. Technically, the CCI is a 'sell' but other indicators are bullish, including a relative performance advantage over the Nasdaq 100.

The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is ready to follow the S&P and Nasdaq, both of which have breached March swing highs, and are on course to challenge all-time highs. Friday's action was particularly positive and is backed by strong technicals. The next overhead target is the 200-day MA; measure risk:reward from the Thursday swing low.

The Tariff discount is over - maybe it will reappear - but markets appear to think a return to punitive tariffs is over. We have the Nasdaq leading the way. For the Nasdaq, the rally off its low managed to slice through all major moving averages, with the next challenge its February high. Technicals are net positive and extremely strong, with volume surging in net accumulation.

One advantage of making predictions and leaving such predictions on a chart is that you can see how right (or wrong) you are, and how your perception of the market differs to the market as a whole. The S&P has been on a charge since the modest retrace mid-April. The April rally has taken itself past the March swing low and the 50-day MA, and is set to challenge the 200-day MA this week. Given this has been in solid rally mode I would not be suprised to see a pause at the 200-day MA.