Rallies Continue Without The April Retest

One advantage of making predictions and leaving such predictions on a chart is that you can see how right (or wrong) you are, and how your perception of the market differs to the market as a whole.

The S&P has been on a charge since the modest retrace mid-April. The April rally has taken itself past the March swing low and the 50-day MA, and is set to challenge the 200-day MA this week. Given this has been in solid rally mode I would not be suprised to see a pause at the 200-day MA.

On the weekly chart, the tag of resistance is almost picture perfect. If I was to make a prediction, look for an intra-week spike high, but perhaps an end-of-week finish at, or just below marked resistance.

The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has reached converged 50-day MA and March swing lows. Given what has gone for the Nasdaq and S&P I would not expect these resistance levels to last very long. Technicals are net positive, although trading volume has dropped off significantly since the capitulation low.

The Nasdaq is also fast approaching both its March swing high and its 200-day MA. Technicals are net positive, and its outperforming the Russell 2000, but not the S&P. The index is slightly more overbought than the S&P on both short term and intermediate stochastics, which means its well placed to accelerate (just as an oversold state can mean markets are about to crash). The coming week could deliver some sharp advances if it can clear its 200-day MA.

Ironically, the safe pair of hands might be Bitcoin ($BTCUSD). After clearing significant resistance of 92,500, it now finds itself in a modest move back to this new support.

The Semiconductor Index has had a rough 2025, but this index is enjoying net bullish technicals and is outperforming the Nasdaq 100. This index finished Friday above its 50-day MA, but there is plenty of room to go before it reaches its next resistance level, giving day traders something to work with.

The action of last week leaves all indices in a bullish set up, perhaps with the exception of the Russell 2000 ($IWM), only because the latter index is at natural resistance. As the days pass, markets are shaping more of a V-reversal bottom, and look to claw back more of the Trump induced losses.

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

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