As the markets play around in the summer sun with Tuesday likely to see some modest recovery to yesterday's losses I took the opportunity to look at a couple of 30-year charts for S&P and Nasdaq. I wanted to eliminate noise so tracked only 20-week and 40-week EMAs, monitoring where crossovers occurred. In summary, the most recent 15 years have been relatively stable compared to the more whipsaw nature of the previous 15. Are we entering a new whipsaw period? Of interest too was the deep oversold nature of the recent decline - a decline which took the 20-week EMA outside of the lower Bollinger Band. Past occurrences when the EMA exceeded the (upper) Bollinger band where the pre-1987 crash and the pre-2007 crash. In each case the market headed south in a hurry. At this point, a counter rally of similar strength is unlikely but there is little reason for shorts to be aggressive here - even if buying is not necessarily the preferred choice. The Nasdaq didn't gain during its rec...

On first appearance it was a nasty knock to the indices but the volume was not excessive for the degree of point loss. The Nasdaq has three out of four supporting technicals on 'bear' signals but as long as the 50-day MA holds it's not over for the bulls. But the worry for the Nasdaq (and Nasdaq 100) is the collapsed state of the Semiconductors; its 50-day MA was cleanly sliced and all supporting technicals are in the red. Bulls will really need to step up on Tuesday if a rout is not to emerge here. Two-hundred day MA is next support. The Russell 2000 was a mixed bag with the clear break of rising support from late March reaction lows on the back of a bullish "Golden Cross" between the 50-day and 200-day MAs. The S&P was another mixed bag with the 200-day and 50-day MAs creating a "Golden Cross" but the index cut through each MA! Relative strength also swung away from speculative small caps in favor of 'safe haven' large caps. Double trouble....

Summer's here and a slow week saw modest losses, but nothing killer. Since the March bottom there hasn't been two weeks of consecutive selling - will this week offer the first one? What had the Stockcharts.com Publishers to say about it. Eric Muathe of Muathe Twitter has a couple of charts of interest. His weekly chart uses 1,739 as the breakout point for the Nasdaq with 10-week and 13-week EMAs as trailing support - last weeks selling was nothing to be too alarmed about based on these metrics His daily chart has the gap breakout holding with a larger overhead gap as an upside target. Anthony V Caldaro of Objective Elliot Wave noted a "primary B" for his wavecount; but I don't 'see it' unless he refers to the "B" of the "ABC" from the March low (with the 'v' at 956.23?); if that's the case then the current move down would likely last a few weeks. EWT is such a head-spinner! George Zimmerman of GSZimmTrading.com suggest...

Modest losses on the week for the indices weren't enough to prevent a bullish cross of long term momentum (stochastics [39,1]) for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. On the other side of the fence, market breadth had taken a marked turn to the downside. MACD trigger 'sells' for the Percentage of Nasdaq and S&P stocks above the 50-day MA. The rally is currently been supported by fewer and fewer stocks above their 50-day MAs. Summation Indices also marked the week with a new reaction low. However, over the course of a bull market such divergences were not uncommon and the bulk of the last cyclical bull market operated under a negative divergence between breadth and the parent market. How these conditions play out in a cyclical bear market will be made clearer over the coming week but it's a clear warning sign the best of the rally is behind it for now. Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development pro...

A lazy summer day summed up the trading this Thursday. No support violations for the Nasdaq or Nasdaq 100 and no recovery from the indices which had lost support. The only index under a measure of threat is the Semiconductor index at its 50-day MA. The bearish divergence in the S&P highlights the general struggle indices have at holding these levels. Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398 [1] Register at Zignals . [2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight) [3] Click on the YourCall Icon [4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month) [5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals [6] Send me your Zignals Userid so I can track the calls made (declan-at-zignals.com) or post it in the comments section of this post. In your em...

Selling pressure is building in the Proshares Ultra Financials (UYG). The past three days have seen the break of the March-June rally, a loss of the 20-day MA and a loss of the 50-day MA. The tide appears to be turning in favour of bears but shorts will probably wait for a retest of the 20-day MA / mid-Bollinger Band before getting aggressive . There is a sizable void all the way back to $1.40s but there should be enough demand to see buyers kick in around the $2.70s All-in-all it's not looking too attractive for bulls other than for a short term bounce back to the 20-day MA. Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398 [1] Register at Zignals . [2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight) [3] Click on the YourCall Icon [4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month) [5] Enter as...

Heavy volume saw the day swing from bear to bull and eventually close neutral. There was no change technically or significant shift in support/resistance. The Nasdaq maintained 20-day MA support and has an opportunity to bounce: The Russell 2000 held rising support but is trapped between 200-day and 20-day MAs. While the semiconductors posted a clear 'spinning top' as 50-day MA support was tested Will tomorrow see bears take another crack at things? Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398 [1] Register at Zignals . [2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight) [3] Click on the YourCall Icon [4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month) [5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals [6] Send me your Zignals Userid so I can...