Posts

SPY Move to Low $80s?

Image
Brett Steenbarger has observed a bullish bias from one to five days out following the events of the past two days. Based on the various support breaks which emerged yesterday the intermediate time frame is looking attractive for a move down to the $80s . S&P Breadth is looking very rich: So many bearish divergences to work off.... Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398 [1] Register at Zignals . [2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight) [3] Click on the YourCall Icon [4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month) [5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals [6] Send me your Zignals Userid so I can track the calls made (declan-at-zignals.com) or post it in the comments section of this post. In your email make referenc

Stock Market Commentary: Breakdown

Image
Yesterday was the warning, today was the confirmation. A string of support breaks have given bears the upper hand. The only indices to hold out were the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. The DOW and S&P each lost rising support dating back to March. Relative strength again shifted with another notch towards the bears with Tech leading Large Caps leading Small Caps. The Semiconductor Index lost rising support of 270. Look for this weakness to take down the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. The Russell 2000 finished somewhat in between; it held March-June support but cracked below its 20-day MA. I suspect we are looking at a the early stages of a sideways range; a straight drop seems too expected although a test of lower Bollinger Bands would appear likely. Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398 [1] Register at Zignals . [2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microso

Market Sentiment: Weakness Returns

Image
Market breadth had struggled to confirm the May-June advance but had no problem swinging down following the first real day of market selling in nearly a month. The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA has seen all supporting technicals back in the red as the bearish divergence kicked off in May held. The Nasdaq Summation Index has seen tight MA action from the late May bottom but this rolled over on yesterday's 32 point loss. Note new 'sell' trigger in the Ultimate Oscillator. The one saving grace is the net technical March 18th 'buy' signal still stands (for now). The Nasdaq Bullish Percent is the most bullish of the breadth indicators although it was not immune to yesterday's market damage with a bearish cross in its 5-day EMA as the MACD trigger line also swung in favour of a 'sell' signal. So far Breadth has reacted more to Nasdaq down-days than up-days; if bulls are to keep the markets pushing higher they are going to have to generate eno

Stock Market Commentary: Creeking

Image
The last few days of tight trading were a pressure cooker waiting to release. The eventual outcome was a gap down on heavier volume, but the extent of the selling relative to the point loss was not too damaging but there are points of concern. For the Nasdaq there was a MACD trigger and On-Balance-Volume 'sell' trigger matched with confirmed distribution. However, the 20-day MA was able to act as support and 1,785 breakout support wasn't challenged at all. But the Russell 2000 lost its breakout with a MACD trigger 'sell' and MACD bearish divergence. It too found support at the 20-day MA. However, as a leading index could be a foreshadow as to what is to come for the Tech averages. The S&P lost its breakout with its 20-day MA and rising support from March under threat. As a lagging index it's no surprise to see it struggle but a down day tomorrow will leave plenty of room to the downside with the rising 50-day MA more likely to be support than the falling 200

Weekly Stock Charts review from Stockcharts.com Publishers

Image
Not sure if there is an issue with the ranking but topping the Stockcharts.com public list was Maurice Walker with Yong Pan and Tomas Leszczynski trailing at only a 10th of their regular traffic. Anthony Caldaro of Elliott Wave Lives on has yet to post the 'B' top of the ABC correction in play. Richard Lehman is playing for rising channels on 60-min timeframes with no daily channels available yet. 6/13 -- Lots of good perspective in the Barrons mid-year review this week. I strongly recommend reading. The consensus among their gurus is that we're in for a bumpier ride and even a possible pullback in Q3 coming up, but that the lows will hold because they represented systemic fears that have been ameliorated by the government's massive stimulus. Long term themes in resources and emerging markets are still favorited. That fits with the chart perspective that says we've slowed to a flatter rise and may be subjected to some retracement soon (though not yet). I suspect

Weekend Market Commentary: Ticks Higher

Image
The weekly picture for the indices continued to drive in favour of the bulls. Long term stochastics [39,1] are approaching areas which have proved to be resistance in the past but are nowhere near overbought. Since the March bottom the S&P has enjoyed four accumulation weeks to one distribution week - although volume has dropped considerably from latter 2008 and early 2009. The Nasdaq has seen five accumulation weeks to no distribution week. Long term stochcastics have only just pushed above the mid-line. The Nasdaq 100 was the most interesting as it had held above last week's break of 2006 low resistance. Former bearish head-and-shoulder support (currently resistance) from 2007/08 is next on the target list. It has seen more distribution weeks but carries the strongest price action. Breadth indicators haven't given a clear 'sell' signal but are (negatively) diverging to the parent indices. No real inclination of a top, even if overbought. Want to win the Trader

Stock Market Commentary: Dilly Dally

Image
There was no confirmation from yesterday's bearish set of candlesticks but indices instead went on to add another a set of (bearish) shooting stars to the mix. Even when the inevitable downswing occurs the proximity of support derived during May will probably soften any blow. One area of interest which caught my attention was a 5-week bearish divergence in the CCI of the semiconductor index - but this has to be viewed in the context of a negated 2-month bearish divergence in the MACD trigger line. Battle lines at 270 and 285 are clear to see. Another point of note is the substantial improvement in the long term bullish perspective with respect to the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day MAs. The Nasdaq is showing 62% of its components trading above this key long term MA - well above resistance from the early part of the cyclical bear market. While one can argue intermediate market breadth points to a period of upcoming weakness, this weakness should be an excellent buyi

Archive

Show more