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Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

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There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
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The Nasdaq Redraws Ascending Triangle As Bitcoin Slumps

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There was more wild fanfare today than any real damage to indices despite Microsoft's earnings hit, and Apple's earnings to follow. We will start with the Nasdaq. I have redrawn the breakout as an adjusted 'bullish ascending triangle' rather than a 'bull trap'. A loss of ascending triangle support would bring in to play a future test of the 200-day MA, which I think the index needs, but is not guaranteed. Technicals have seen a 'sell' trigger in +DI/-DI, but other technicals are holding up well. It could get ugly if Apple dissapoints; if that happens, then the 22.2K level is the immediate concern. I'm not sure what to make of the S&P. It's a bit of a mixed bag, I have redrawn it as a skittish bullish ascending triangle, but it may just be a broader rising channel. The 50-day MA is looking like it will be key support on the next test. A loss will open up for a test of the 200-day MA. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) successfully test...
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S&P Challenges Bull Trap As Nasdaq Breaks Out

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Today it was the turn of the S&P and Nasdaq to make their moves as the Russell 2000 ($IWM) takes a rest after its breakout. The Nasdaq had the best of the action as it cleared ascending triangle resistance (although, not all-time high resistance). Technicals are net positive with a new MACD trigger 'buy' the latest bullish trigger. Volume was a little light, but price action is key.
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Bearish Evening Star for Russell 2000 as S&P 'Bull Trap' Holds

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The Russell 2000 ($IWM) fulfilled its 'bearish evening star' reversal with a gap down at the open followed by a solid red candlestick. However, despite this loss, there is still plenty of room to run to support and technicals have barely shifted from their overbought state. The Russell 2000 registered a distribution day in the process, which gives bears a strong chance of registering another win on Monday.
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Markets Rally But "Bull Traps" Hold For S&P and Bitcoin

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Markets were able to stage a recovery after Tuesday's losses, but the recovery - while newsworthy - didn't do enough to make back all of those losses, and critically, there is still a key "bull trap" in the S&P. Technicals are still mixed for this index, with momentum (stochastics) failing to return to an overbought condition, a condition required to sustain a rally.
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"Bull Traps" For S&P, Nasdaq and Bitcoin

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So, in one fell swoop, the S&P and Nasdaq undid all of the work of 2026 with nasty gaps lower. In the case of the Nasdaq, the ascending triangle breakout reversed into a breakdown with new 'sell' triggers in the MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI. The relative performance of the index to the Russell 2000 ($IWM) showed an acceleration lower after last year's declines. Only stochastics (momentum) is holding on. If one was to be more honest of what's happening, we are likely broadening out to a trading range and it will take a loss of 22K to really flag a concern for bulls. Things are a little more problematic for the S&P. There is a definite 'bull trap' in play following today's significant gap down. Volume rose in confirmed distribution, so this wasn't some fake out to get weak hands out of their positions. As with the Nasdaq, the twin lows of October/November at 6,550 carries greater significance, and we are still a long way from a test...
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Bitcoin Buy

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There wasn't a whole lot of change to Thursday's action and so the focus should probably be Bitcoin. The daily time frame is showing a low key move back to breakout support on bullish technicals (on-balance-volume is in the process of making a recovery after a couple of month of decline) and remains the best buying opportunity of the assets I cover. The weekly Bitcoin chart is a little different in that the week finished with a nice uptick on higher volume accumulation, but technicals are net bearish. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has a small, double spike high, but the spikes aren't large enough to suggest a tweezer top, but watch for any early weakness. There wasn't much coming from the S&P or Nasdaq aside from protecting their earlier breakouts. In terms of extension relative to 200-day MAs, we have the Russell 2000 at 17.2%, the S&P at 9.2% and the Nasdaq at 11.2% above the moving average; only the Russell 2000 is approaching the 95% zone...
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Russell 2000 ($IWM), Equal Weight S&P, and Semiconductor Index Extend Rally

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Indices kept the good times rolling with the Russell 2000 ($IWM), equal weighted S&P and Semiconductor Index all pushing to new all-time highs. Since clearing the last line of resistance these indices have barely paused. The Russell 2000 is doing most of the heavy lifting, outperforming peer indices as Small Caps take over from the tech heavy hitters.
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Index Breakouts Hold As Bitcoin Makes A Move

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There wasn't a whole lot of change to indices following today's close. The Supreme Court has still to rule on tariffs and then there is the Powell noise to consider. It may have been easier for prices to drift lower, but instead, markets finished mostly flat. The one exception is Bitcoin. It's back knocking at the December high as it works towards a right-hand-base, with the last two days registering as accumulation days. For those seeking a long trade for the first half of 2026, Bitcoin could be the asset of choice.
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Fresh Breakout in Russell 2000 with confirmation in S&P

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Markets may be awaiting the ruling from the Supreme Court on tariffs, but expectation is for something favorable. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) made a clear break of its December swing high on a return in net bullish technicals.
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Has The Semiconductor Index ($SOX) Peaked?

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It has been a volatile past few days since the New Year rolled in and Markerts have been making big moves up and down over the space of days. The one index to watch for the coming couple of weeks is the Semiconductor Index ($SOX). The gains to new highs is narrowing the retracements zones with 5,400s coming into play more as a pullback target.
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S&P Breakout as Bitcoin Turns Net Bullish

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A positive day on higher volume for many assets. The best mover was the S&P, and the equal weighted S&P in particular, as it posted a second solid day in a row to confirm the breakout. If there is to be a measured move higher, then look for the equal-weighted S&P to get to 8,200s, and 7,350 for the S&P. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) hasn't yet posted a new high, but it's heading in the right direction on higher volume accumulation. Technicals are mostly bullish, with the MACD on the verge of a new 'buy' signal; when this happens technicals will be net bullish. The Nasdaq has so far only managed a weak gain, although Semiconductors have posted a new all-time high, albeit on a series of gap moves on net bullish technicals. Also helping is the improvement in Bitcoin. It has recovered from a potential 'bear flag', shifting to a sideways pattern. However, because it managed a capitulation on a spike low, on significant volume, and is (wel...
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Glass Half Full or Half Empty into 2026?

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Interesting times lie ahead for 2026. Technology can't be expected to carry the markets again next year, and a decent correction - or more likely a sideways shift - is something to watch for. Given this slow down, there are 495 stocks (outside the top 5 tech stocks that have carried the index) in the S&P that look ready to take up the slack. The breakout in the equal weighted S&P should stick into 2026, but it will need to hold 7,795 breakout support (and 20-day MA) if this isn't going to morph into a 'bull trap' and a likely move back to 7,500. Such a move wouldn't be terminal, but it will leave traders scrambling for guidance.
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Breakouts in Russell 2000 and Equal Weight S&P Remain Stalled, But Not Defeated

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When the breakouts in the Russell 2000 ($IWM) and equal-weighted S&P ($SPXEW) remain under breakout support (again resistance) I would expect selling to expand and the breakouts to quickly dissipate, but this hasn't quite happened yet. However, buyers will need to make a stand before the year is out so when real trading resumes in the New Year, bulls will have something to work with. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) remains stuck below $250, and today's 'black' candlestick is not one to suggest bulls will have it easy tomorrow. A weak 'sell' trigger in the MACD doesn't help, but in itself is not too damaging.
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Loses Undercut Russell 2000 Breakout, But No Real Damage Done

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It was coming, but only because markets have performed strongly since November lows. We have seen breakouts in the Russell 2000 ($IWM) and equal-weighted S&P, but both have drifted below their breakout levels. It wouldn't take much to recover these loses, but buyers still have some heavy lifting to do. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) closed with an indecisive doji after two days of selling, but I would consider an indecisive doji at breakout support more bullish. Technicals are nest positive, but On-Balance-Volume is close to a 'sell' trigger. However, the index is enjoying relative outperformance.
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Distribution Strikes But Russell 2000 ($IWM) Breakout Holds

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Friday's losses gave back some of the early week gains, but losses weren't enough to derail the bullishness on the week. The strongest index was the Russell 2000 ($IWM). It started last week pressuring $252 resistance, managed to break mid-week, but got caught up in the Friday sell-off in Semiconductors. Technicals are net bullish with momentum in overbought territory - a key driver for breakouts, and Friday's loss didn't weaken that. For Monday, watch for a spike low below $252, where anything sub-$250 might be an opportunity to grab a long position for an upcoming Santa rally.
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Breakout In Dow Jones Industrial Follows Yesterday's Breakout in Russell 2000

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Indices are making their way higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average making a clean break of resistance on modest volume. The heavy volume gains came yesterday for this index with technicals net bullish. The Dow breakout looks good, but the weekly chart points to resistance. The index could run steadily higher along this resistance line, but a breakout would accelerate the advance.
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New Thresholds Established As Russell 2000 Pressures All-Time Highs

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The volume wasn't great, but the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is again challenging $252 resistance as sellers seemed reluctant to take profits. We may see volume if $252 is breached, but it's got to get there. The other beneficiary was Bitcoin ($BTCUSD), it was struggling a little but is now challenging the last swing high. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has returned to an overbought state with the MACD above the bullish zero line. The index has outperforming the Nasdaq since bouncing off November lows. Breakouts come from an overbought state and the technical picture now is better than it was in mid-October, the last time it was challenging $252s.
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Bitcoin Slips A Little As Other Indices Stall

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There wasn't a whole lot of action in markets on Friday, but the breakout from the swing low in Bitcoin drifted below breakout support, but not enough to suggest it's done. The breakout failure needs to be watched because it will impact confidence in the Nasdaq and Semiconductor Index. The Nasdaq didn't post a big gain on Friday, but it helped build on the breakout of declining resistance. Volume rose in confirmed accumulation as the MACD trigger line returned above the bullish zero line (although the MACD trigger 'buy' occurred below the zero line, so it's building off a weak buy signal). Technicals are net bullish. The index would benefit from a solid white candlestick; existing shorts have no wiggle room and would be key contributors to this buying. Also, because of this buying, we are again in the 15% of historic price extremes relative to its 200-day MA (dating back to 1971). The S&P has been matching the Nasdaq, but Friday's fini...
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Is Russell 2000 ($IWM) Ready To Break?

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The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has been the index to make all the running and today finally saw some modest accumulation. The index is well set to breakout, but it's also 14% above its 200-day MA, which puts it above 90% of historic price action dating back to 1987; if it gets to $258.25 it will be above 95% of historic price action, and at $276.76 it's 99%. The last time the index did that was April 2021...
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