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Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

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There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
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Bitcoin Collapse Goes Against The Grain

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Indices are all doing what good indices should in a bull market, but Bitcoin has taken a sharp move down following the rejection at the 200-day MA (and subsequent break of the 50-day MA). As to which side of the coin wins out remains to be seen, but given cryptos relationship to the tech sector it's hard to see how each could continue in their respective directions without at some point aligning. Last week, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) staged a new breakout beyond $287 and then preceeded to trade in a narrow range on low volume. Expectation is for this to continue higher, but a loss of $287 would open up the potential for a 'bull trap' and set things for a move to $270. Technicals are net positive, but the MACD is shaping a bearish divergence.
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Russell 2000 Breakout and AI concerns

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The long weekend has been kind to markets. The Russell 2000 finally joined lead indices with a breakout to new highs. The MACD is still on a 'sell' trigger, but other technicals are bullish once more.
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Buyers Defend Support On Higher Volume Accumulation

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After a couple of weeks of selling, buyers decided to step in and reverse the near term trend. Buying volume stepped up in confirmed accumulation. It was a good trade for those who took advantage, and it's increasingly looking like new trading ranges will come out of this. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) had a support level to work with, but will likely find resistance at its 20-day MA.
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Market Selling Continues As Trading Ranges Establish

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Markets continue their slow down, but without the panic that many were expecting. Volume continues to slide with distribution the order of the day but all indices have support levels to work with. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is back at the April swing low, and just above the January swing high. This is a natural level to look for support that could offer a new trading range. It may take the approach of the 50-day MA to actually deliver the next rally, but there is time available before this happens. Technicals are mostly negative, but not particularly bad.
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Sellers Appear As Options Expiration Clouds Volume

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We had some decent selling across markets on higher volume, that would register as distribution on a normal day, but on options expiration the true picture is a little cloudier. While this selling looks to be damaging, follow through is needed if it's to evolve into something bigger. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) edged back to former handle resistance, turned support, which is also where the 20-day MA can be found. Another day of selling would take it far enough away from this support to leave it looking at the 50-day MA as its probable next step. There was a weak MACD trigger 'sell' as other technicals have held up well despite the index peaking in early May. The relative underperformance against the Nasdaq looks worse than it is, but even if this recovers a little there may be sufficient merit to see buyers come in on money rotation.
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Bitcoin Pressures 200-day MA With Further Gains Likely

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It's natural for an undercut test of a 200-day MA to reverse on the test, but Bitcoin has been lingering at the moving average with a higher volume accumulation gain. If you took profits, no loss, but with the successful test of the 20-day MA there may be a chance for new traders to jump in, and those with existing profits to roll it a little further.
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Russell 2000 Offers Steady Gains On Successful Backtest

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Semiconductor stocks are hogging all the limelight with their Y2K sized gains, but there is quiet strength in other indices with the foundation for more. The Russell 2000 eptimizes this best after breaking from it narrow handle it has managed a successful test of that handle - now support - with a combined test of its 20-day MA, topped off with a 'bullish hammer'. Technicals are net positive, although the MACD is about to trigger a weak 'sell' trigger. If there is a negative, it's that since the breakout, the heavier volume trading days have favored distribution, but the nature of the trend is still positive.
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Equal Weight Nasdaq 100 Makes Gains As Other Indices Fade

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It was a bit of a mixed day for indices as the equal-weight Nasdaq 100 bucked the trend of other indices and posted strong gains. Remaining indices suffered profit gains as sellers made a long awaited appearance. It was odd to see the equal wieghted Nasdaq 100 makes such a clean move, tagging resistance in the process. Technicals - including relative performance - are firmly in the bullish camp, although it has yet to break to new 2026 highs, which if it was to follow the Semiconductor Index, would mean big gains lie ahead for the index.
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Russell 2000 Kicks On As Bitcoin Approaches 200-day MA and Semis Break

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It was a good day for the Russell 2000 as yesterday's indecision was negated by a respectable day of buying. Technicals are net bullish, but today's volume was a little disappointing given new all-time highs. Better was the S&P, in that it registered an accumulation day with a new closing high. There could be a good day trade if tomorrow starts with a gap high, forcing shorts to cover (although there is unlikely to be many), but no overhead resistance. The equal-weighted S&P bounced off 'bull flag' support and will again be challenging February highs after the last failed test in early April. I expect this test to succeed in breaking higher (why? because triple tops are rare). The Nasdaq is taking baby steps higher and volume has been reasonable, but hardly spectacular - which is probably a good thing. Bitcoin is very close to testing its 200-day MA, and may do so as early as tomorrow. This will likely be a profit taking opportunity, so i...
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Indices Manage New Breakouts

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Lead indices had a good end-of-week finish that registered fresh breakouts. The slingshot index could be the Russell 2000 ($IWM). It traded a nice handle before it broke lower in what looked to be a pending test of its 20-day MA. But instead of that, it reversed and has now broken to the upside. We are looking for a potential measured move target of 320(ish).
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Russell 2000 ($IWM) Breakdown or "Bear Trap"?

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There is an interesting setup coming for the Russell 2000 ($IWM) Today's action saw a move back into last week's breakout gap that registered as a breakdown from its narrow handle, BUT, retained the characteristics of the breakout by remaining above $270. In addition, we have a fast approaching 20-day MA that could provide a cue for buyers to step in. Technicals remain net bullish, although today's volume registered as distribution. While I tend to be a 'glass-half-full' person, I am leaning here towards a possible 'bear trap' that should resolve tomorrow; if we see buyers step in after the first half-hour of trading (when the likely direction for the market that day is established), then it might be worth a long play.
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We Have To Talk About Kevin: Consumer Sentiment

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Nothing really to add from the weekend, but the one chart that is leaving me confused is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. Consumer sentiment is in the toilet, really in the toilet - no surprise really given tariffs and general Administration f*ckisms - but the market has been pushing new highs rather than pivoting to new lows as has happened in the past.
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Russell 2000 Shapes Bullish Handle As Bitcoin Continues To Advance

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Indices continued to post gains but the Russell 2000 ($IWM) remains in the process of consolidation. The index is shaping a bullish handle which offers a nice risk:reward play for those looking to play the break. Volume has been light across the pattern and well below that of the March capitulation, and below even that of the early year advance. The equal-weighted S&P is attempting a 'bull flag', although it's a little scrappy. Technicals are net bullish but its underperforming relative to its weighted average and this weakness is expanding. The S&P edged a breakout of its small handle, which gives an indication that the equal-weighted S&P should follow suit on the break of the 'bull flag'. The only caveat is the edged breakout lacked sufficient consolidation to shake out the weak hands, so it leaves the move vulnerable to volume selling. The Nasdaq finished Friday on higher volume accumulation after a successful defense of the break...
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Equal Weighted S&P Primed For Breakout

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After the rejection at resistance it would have been easy for the equal-weighted S&P to come back to its moving averages. However, today's close delivered a bullish dragonfly doji, although momentum is overbought which means it's not a reversal candlestick. Given the proximity to resistance it's well placed to deliver a breakout following the lead of weighted the S&P. Technicals are net bullish, but there is still significant underperformance against the weighted average.
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Equal Weighted S&P Repelled By All-Time Resistance

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It's of no coincidence that when sellers appeared for the equal weighted S&P they did so at resistance. Today's candlestick at all-time resistance was almost a bearish enfulfing pattern with a spike high penetrating resistance. Given the weighted S&P had already broken to new all-time highs, the guidance here is for equal-weighted S&P to follow suit. BUT, if the weighted S&P undercuts breakout support to leave a 'bull trap', then much worse is likely to follow.
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Russell 2000 Delivers Breakout As Equal Weight Indices Move To Test Resistance

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Friday delivered a solid move higher across indices. The Russell 2000 had the best of the action with a breakout gap higher on confirmed accumulation. The only negative is the relative underpeformance to peer indices. It's just a question what spanner Trump wants to throw at the indices; next week could be a long week.
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Indices Test All-Time High Resistance

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It's no coincidence to see indices start to slow their gains as resistance approaches. This was best represented by the Russell 2000 ($IWM) as the advanced got squeezed and the net gain on the day was minimal (Futures suggest a modest start, no big breakout yet). The breakout could happen before the week is out, but the gap moves we have seen will act as a draw to be filled, so don't be surprised if we a move back to Tuesday's gap higher. Technicals for the index are in good shape, although volume is a little disappointing.
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Breakout Gaps Hold As Indices Approach All-Time Highs

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Markets have done well to hold the sizable gaps after version 1 of the US-Iranian ceasefire, and if there is reason for optimism, it's that markets are exepecting a version 2 of the ceasefire relatively soon(?). The Russell 2000 ($IWM) returned to a net bullish technical state as the base breakout is on the way to challenging $270. Since the test of the 200-day MA there hasn't been an opportunity for 'value' buyers to step in on a pullback. This might happen when $270 is tested.
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Markets Mark Breakout Gaps

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If you a follower of JC Parets you would be looking at a (very) bullish market outlook. I would be more cautious, but today's action has done much to negate some of the lingering bearishness from yesterday. However, markets in a trading range should be considered neutral until all-time highs are breached, but long term investors can accumulate. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) gapped higher yesterday, but closed with a bearish black candlestick. However, today's buying managed to createa a bullish engulfing pattern to negate the bearish black candlestick. In addition, yesterday's gap created an "island reversal" which is a significant (bullish) reversal pattern. Note, this gap can't close for the pattern to be true. Technicals are improving with a 'buy' trigger in stochastics to match earlier ones in On-Balance-Volume and MACD.
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When News and Technicals Combine

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So we have markets coming to (or just beyond) resistance and a Trump deadline for Iran. Consequently, we are in position to see a sizable move tomorrow. Those markets that have broken resistance are signalling towards a positive outcome (or perhaps, a kick-the-can deadline for Iran). But if news is bad and we gap away from resistance, then many markets will be back at 200-day MAs. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is approaching converged resistance from $255, declining resistance and 50-day MA. Today's buying was on low volume, but counts as relative "accumulation" and marks itself as a possible bottom breakout.
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