Not Good. Indices remain under pressure after selling into support has only resulted in a weak bounce. It won't take much to tip the S&P, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 back into the red. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is the canary in the coal mine. Today was a second narrow doji after Monday's. Volume was down, reflecting the disinterest by buyers. Technicals are net negative and last week's gap down has finally closed. Don't be surprised if we see a solid red candlestick before the week is out. Even if there is a rally, the 20-day MA will be there to add its own pressure.

The problem when you trade off what Trump says, is that you are only in for disappointment. Monday's reversal that delivered what should have been a tradeable bullish engulfing pattern has devolved into a distribution sell off across lead indices. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) gapped down but was at least able to hold onto $245 support. Technicals are net negative, but not fully oversold, so I would be looking for another day of selling that should take it into a test of its 200-day MA.

Markets are reflecting the turmoil in the Middle East by being as indecisive as the Administration in its goals for the region. Headlines talk of significant declines, but that's not what we are seeing. The Nasdaq has been particularly resilient despite the added pressure from a possible AI bubble. I have marked in declining resistance from January, that intersects with today's close, and marks a possible short trade (stop on a close above today's nasty looking spike high). There is a weak 'buy' signal, but other indicators are bearish, despire the sharp acceleration in relative performance to the Russell 2000 ($IWM).

It was not a guaranteed thing, and if Monday sees gains (unlikely), then a bear trap can't be ruled out. It was not a wholesale disaster, but it will set the tone for the week. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) gapped down but wasn't able to build on the opening loss. The end-of-day finish as a doji leaves it in a bit of a no-mans land, but if there is a gap higher and a closing white candlestick tomorrow, then we have a bullish morning star reversal pattern. Stochastics (momentum) is not entirely oversold, which you would like to see for a reversal pattern. Technicals are now net negative, so it does point towards further losses, but do watch for an opening gap higher that could offer a long trade.

We are seeing a pick up in trading volume with selling dominating, but we are not seeing a new downward trend, at least, not yet. News headlines paint a harsher picture of market action, but it hasn't borne out yet. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has drfited towards range support on a sequence of lower highs (but not yet lower lows). I expect this squeeze to play out with a solid red candlestick breakdown (and a good short trade) with a target of the 200-day MA. This should turn technicals net negative, and then, we can start to see if a new bear trend forms.

The Iranian war has flagged extreme headlines, but markets haven't broken from their trading ranges bar a few exceptions. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is the most bullish of the indices. The index successfully defended $255 support but did finish the day below 50-day MA support. Technicals are still mixed, with momentum (Stochastics) likely the next indicator to switch bearish, which would make bears favorite overall. The S&P spiked below 6,790 support before staging a recovery to close above this (real-body) support line. Technicals are net bearish, but the spike low should mark a point of demand. However, if tomorrow, the index closes within the range of the spike low, then all bets are off. Aggressive traders could look to play a long trade off the open, but if gains fail to build earlier then I wouldn't stick around. It was a different story for the equal-weighted S&P. This posted a clear breakdown from the rising trend, but did manage to successfully d...

Aside from a rise in oil prices, which were already trending higher prior to Israel's, and "tag-along" U.S., strike on Iran it remains to be seen what long term impact this will have on markets. I'm always looking at how indices relate relative to their 200-day MAs, and since the latter part of 2025 to now, this relationship is no longer overbought and not the risk I thought coming into 2026. However, we do have well-defined support levels to work with and these should be tested early next week. Again, a loss here wouldn't be hugely damaging as we have 200-day MAs below to offer support. What will be damaging is, as probably expected, the Iran conflict extends into a series of terrorist attacks on U.S. interests to goad the U.S. (and Israel?) into putting boots-on-the-ground in Iran. The Middle East is never a clear in-and-out, and there is no record of success for the U.S. to lean on here. In such a scenario, we have the makings of drip-drip losses in the market ...

I haven't commented much on the Semiconductor Index, but yesterday brought with it a small candlestick and a gap higher that tagged the measured move target. While today saw a 3%+ loss and a potential bearish evening star. The loss came with a MACD trigger and CCI 'sell'; the MACD 'sell' faking off yesterday's 'buy' signal. Aggressive shorts could look for a test of the 50-day MA (a cover price), but in broader terms the trading range is the dominant pattern.

Bitcoin lost ground off its failed test of the 20-day MA. It's now pushing for a retest of the bullish piercing pattern from the start of February. In addition, it's very close to reaching the measured move target marked by the red-hashed line in the chart.

It was looking ugly for markets in early trading but buyers stepped in to bid markets up by the close. The S&P tagged support in what offered itself as a buying opportunity, although momentum is not fully oversold, which means a retest of the low (if markets bounce from here) is a strong possibility.

Just as losses were softened by the range bound aspects of lead markets, same go for Friday's gains. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) managed a retest of what was a 'bull flag' with technicals net bearish.

Nasty set of red candlesticks painted the market, but most of these occurred within the context of trading ranges. It will be a question of balance as Materials and Staples make gains, as Technology suffers. Bitcoin has been on to a hiding, but the retest of the capitulation is coming on modest action and lower volume - the kind of trading you want to see for a tradeable bottom. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) took a 2% hit on higher volume distribution, with the 50-day MA coming into range as a support test. A bullish play would be for a tag of $255 support followed by an end-of-day close above the 50-day MA. Technicals show 'sell' triggers for MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI. Things only get bearish if $255 support is lost. More of a worry is the equal weighted S&P; early gains were quickly reversed, leaving a nasty spike that has a toppy look to it. Technicals are still positive and the 20-day MA has playes as support swing the swing low in November. I think a ...

The S&P and Nasdaq have stalled rallies that haven't yet challenged resistance of their respective trading ranges. There is a case the Nasdaq has come up against resistance, that was once support, of the prior bullish ascending triangle. This level is also near converged 20-day and 50-day MAs. It could be a shorting opportunity with a move to trading range support.

With the tech sell-off clouding action in the S&P and Nasdaq we have to look elsewhere for positivity. And there is no lack of alternatives. The equal weighted S&P kicked on from its 'bull flag' breakout, posting a new high, and is well away from key support of 7,800 - meaning it has room for maneuver should tech weakness expand.

A good start to the week has left indices nicely positioned to kick on with volume rising in accumulation. Best of this is probably the S&P. Today' buying left it on the cusp of a breakout, although it wasn't enough to reverse the 'sell' triggers in On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI. However, a breakout would likely turn these technicals net bullish once again.

Aside from Bitcoin, we are not seeing too much technical damage, but we are seeing a pick up in the volume of seeling. Moving averages will be key in the near term before we have to start looking at horizontal price support and swing lows. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) undercut its 20-day MA, but hasn't yet challenged support defined by the December swing high. The MACD is on a 'sell' trigger and +DI/DI and On-Balance-Volume will likely do the same Monday if selling continues. Friday's selling registered as confirmed distribution, which is a worry for Monday. It's the strongest index, but if this falls under $257 we would likely be looking at a new trading range bound by $245 and $270 that could last a number of months.

There was more wild fanfare today than any real damage to indices despite Microsoft's earnings hit, and Apple's earnings to follow. We will start with the Nasdaq. I have redrawn the breakout as an adjusted 'bullish ascending triangle' rather than a 'bull trap'. A loss of ascending triangle support would bring in to play a future test of the 200-day MA, which I think the index needs, but is not guaranteed. Technicals have seen a 'sell' trigger in +DI/-DI, but other technicals are holding up well. It could get ugly if Apple dissapoints; if that happens, then the 22.2K level is the immediate concern. I'm not sure what to make of the S&P. It's a bit of a mixed bag, I have redrawn it as a skittish bullish ascending triangle, but it may just be a broader rising channel. The 50-day MA is looking like it will be key support on the next test. A loss will open up for a test of the 200-day MA. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) successfully test...

Today it was the turn of the S&P and Nasdaq to make their moves as the Russell 2000 ($IWM) takes a rest after its breakout. The Nasdaq had the best of the action as it cleared ascending triangle resistance (although, not all-time high resistance). Technicals are net positive with a new MACD trigger 'buy' the latest bullish trigger. Volume was a little light, but price action is key.

The Russell 2000 ($IWM) fulfilled its 'bearish evening star' reversal with a gap down at the open followed by a solid red candlestick. However, despite this loss, there is still plenty of room to run to support and technicals have barely shifted from their overbought state. The Russell 2000 registered a distribution day in the process, which gives bears a strong chance of registering another win on Monday.

Markets were able to stage a recovery after Tuesday's losses, but the recovery - while newsworthy - didn't do enough to make back all of those losses, and critically, there is still a key "bull trap" in the S&P. Technicals are still mixed for this index, with momentum (stochastics) failing to return to an overbought condition, a condition required to sustain a rally.