Popular posts from this blog

Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

Image
There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
Read more

S&P Prepares For Breakout

A good start to the week has left indices nicely positioned to kick on with volume rising in accumulation. Best of this is probably the S&P. Today' buying left it on the cusp of a breakout, although it wasn't enough to reverse the 'sell' triggers in On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI. However, a breakout would likely turn these technicals net bullish once again.

For the equal weighted S&P, we have a 'bull flag' that has so far successfully tested its 20-day MA and offers a long trade of its own.

The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is offering a pullback long trade to its 20-day MA. Risk can be measured on a loss of $258. The MACD is on a 'sell', and it will take a number of bullish trade days to reverse this, but the indicator is trading well above the bullish zero line, so the next 'buy' trigger here will be a 'strong buy'.

The Nasdaq is caught in the middle of its bullish ascending triangle. Today's buying kicked in at its 50-day MA, a moving average that has provided support through the early part of 2026. It could go either way, but as the pattern heads towards a conclusion the likelihood is for it to trade as expected (higher).

Bitcoin staged an accumulation 'buy' back with volume approaching that last seen during November's 2025 capitulation. The risk:reward can be measured with a loss of today's low and an initial target of $85K.

The Dow Industrial Average is building a narrow range on mixed technicals. Today's buying gives bulls another chance to clear the 2026 trading range.

Bulls will have a play tomorrow but direction won't be determined until support or resistance is broken; for tomorrow, that chance lies with bulls.

---

Follow Me on Twitter


Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

Popular posts from this blog

Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

Image
There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
Read more

"Dead Cat" Bounce or Something Better?

Image
It's still a little too early to say, but the bounce is in play and "long" is the place to be. There is a huge amount of overhead resistance and the risk:reward remains tight with moves back to Thursday's lows well within expectations. For the S&P, I would be looking for a rally back to test the 200-day MA, or a fast-falling 20-day MA, whichever is the lowest. Real supply won't kick in until 5,700 is tested, and maybe it will have the juice to get to 5,775 before volume selling makes its presence felt. As the index makes this move I expect to see a decent On-Balance-Volume 'buy' signal, alongside what will be a weak MACD 'buy'; other technicals are likely to remain bearish.
Read more

"Bull Traps" For S&P, Nasdaq and Bitcoin

Image
So, in one fell swoop, the S&P and Nasdaq undid all of the work of 2026 with nasty gaps lower. In the case of the Nasdaq, the ascending triangle breakout reversed into a breakdown with new 'sell' triggers in the MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI. The relative performance of the index to the Russell 2000 ($IWM) showed an acceleration lower after last year's declines. Only stochastics (momentum) is holding on. If one was to be more honest of what's happening, we are likely broadening out to a trading range and it will take a loss of 22K to really flag a concern for bulls. Things are a little more problematic for the S&P. There is a definite 'bull trap' in play following today's significant gap down. Volume rose in confirmed distribution, so this wasn't some fake out to get weak hands out of their positions. As with the Nasdaq, the twin lows of October/November at 6,550 carries greater significance, and we are still a long way from a test...
Read more

Archive

Show more