There isn't a whole lot to add from what was said over the weekend. Intraday daily ranges have been tightening as markets move further away from April swing lows, and get closer to resistance defined by March lows. Technicals have returned to bullish net technicals for the Russell 2000 ($IWM) despite an underperformance relative to peer indices and a return to more normal trading volumes. A test of the 50-day MA still looks the preferred action for the coming days, altough short term stochastics are overbought, so it may ease back today/tomorrow before making a final push to the 50-day MA.

Shorts finally blinked after the narrow trading action of previous weeks when a small hint of buying led to a larger period of short covering for Bitcoin. Technicals are net bullish as Bitcoin vastly outperformed the tech favored Nasdaq, leaving it nicely setup to kick on.

The day started with some decent bullish momentum, but indices struggled by the close of business. Each of the lead indices finished with a bearish 'black' candlestick, so look for some downside follow through tomorrow. Best of the action came with Bitcoin as the cryptocurrency cleared recent tight congestion, and surged past its 200-day MA. Volume had eased through March and didn't pick up on the rally to 92,500, which may weaken the sustainability of this rally. However, this is a definitive shift in the prior bearish trend dominant for 2025.

Markets are drifting towards a retest of April swing lows, but not all indices did so following tests of March swing lows. These losses feel a little early, and I still would look for a rally to March lows before they get back to April lows - so it 'feels bullish', despite what markets look like they are doing. Volume is falling as markets drift lower, which is also bullish, but technicals remain firmly bearish. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) closed with a 'buy' signal in the MACD as the index counters with a new period of relative outpeformance to peer indices. It's still a long way from the March swing low, but if it's able to rally past $190 it will set up a new period of higher lows and higher highs.

Indices are reaching an end point in their relief bounces, but the asset that is most likely to break lower is Bitcoin ($BTCUSD). It's generating spike highs at channel resistance with a significant drop in volume and 200-day MA overhead resistance. Technicals are net bullish, but someway from reaching an overbought state, which may help it break the channel and catch shorts unaware, but I think this will head lower.

Things should stabilize as markets make a run to test the March swing low. I would expect to see a retest of last week's lows at some point over the coming couple of months, but for now, bulls can breathe little. On the longer term outlook, we have 'death crosses` between 50-day and 200-day MAs across lead indices which will define action for the rest of the year. The S&P gain was modest, but consistent, as trading volume eased off to something more typical. It will take a couple of weeks before we can look for a net bullish return in technicals, but intermediate stochastics [39,1] are close to crossing the midpoint of 50 (a reliable marker for a bull market).

After yesterday's big recovery it was going to be hard for markets to follow through today but I would be looking for a recovery bounce to challenge March swing lows, before a retest of the April lows. I have illustrated this on the S&P, now we just need the index to conform :) We likely have had the capitulation volume, although technicals are a long way from turning bullish. Should markets take out 5,500 on this current bounce, then a V-recovery becomes favored.

If there is one thing recent volatility is offering people is a fantastic opportunity to increase their pension contributions, or start a pension if they haven't already. Nobody knows what will come next, but what we do know is markets are offering a steep discount and therefore an opportunity for us benefit. Pension contributions come with tax breaks, which anyone can take advantage of, and the dollar-cost-average approach works best in this situation. If we want to consider a deep swing low, when the S&P gets 30% below its 200-day MA we have a major low, which based on the current 200-day MA, is around 4,029. A more positive spin on recent volatility is to look for a rally to the swing low 5,500, before a retest of the current low at 4,835 (or lower if we break it tomorrow). The Russell 2000 ($IWM), like the S&P, retraced most of yesterday's trading action, although trading volume was well down on the last couple of days. Crash action did kick in on an over...

In the end it wasn't so orderly, but we now have indices trading at levels previously enountered last spring. For the S&P, losses on the weekly time frame undercut the midline of stochastics, so while we have an opportunity for a defensive rally from Friday's close, we are only looking at the start of a more secular decline, something more inline with 2022 when the index tested its 200-week MA.

What were traders thinking? That Trump's tariffs were possibly going to be a good thing for markets? Why did markets close higher over the three days leading into today? Trump is all fault, but the introduction of tariffs was no surprise; he did it in his first term, he ran on it for his second term, and he didn't shy away from his "Liberation Day", and yet markets shed $2tn in value on its release! And, as I said during the credit crisis, where were all the Ivy League business school boffins and corporate leaders to stop any of this from happening? Corporate America was silent (scared? lazy? too rich to care?) and could have done so much more to have stopped this. When Trump is relying on ChatGPT to draw up his tariffs - and imposing tariffs on uninhabited islands - it's clear America's problems run deep, and most of those problem areas lean Republican. And yet, not one word of complaint or action from those who have influence (hello Elon Musk). As for Democr...

I had kind-of written them off as support, but March lows are holding up better than I thought they would. I have marked in the updated measured move targets for the various indices derived from the weekly charts, but these will be negated on a move above the March swing highs. The Nasdaq has registered two higher volume distribution days in the past four with the MACD clinging on to its earlier 'buy' trigger. Today's buying recovered the break of the March low, with the next challenge the 20-day MA. The index is a relative performance tussle with the Russell 2000 ($IWM) that it's currently winning.