Bitcoin At Channel Resistance

Indices are reaching an end point in their relief bounces, but the asset that is most likely to break lower is Bitcoin ($BTCUSD). It's generating spike highs at channel resistance with a significant drop in volume and 200-day MA overhead resistance. Technicals are net bullish, but someway from reaching an overbought state, which may help it break the channel and catch shorts unaware, but I think this will head lower.

Indices had a bearish combo with a 'black' candlestick yesterday and a doji today. The S&P managed a weak MACD 'buy' from well below the bullish zero line.

The Nasdaq likewise posted the bearish 'black' candlestick at swing low and 20-day MA resistance. There are two 'buy' triggers for the MACD and On-Balance-Volume to go with an acceleration in relative performance against the Russell 2000 ($IWM)

The Russell 2000 ($IWM) also has the 'black' candlestick/doji combo, but it's well away from swing low and 20-day MA resistance. It's vulnerable to sellers, but is already deeply oversold. It may be the quickest to retest the April swing low at $171 - watch closely.

For tomorrow, sellers are likely to make an appearance, although hopefully not the rout we saw on Trump's tariffs announcement. Shorts can look to Bitcoin as a trade opportunity.

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

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