Sunday, December 16, 2012

Weekly Market Commentary: Santa Rally Week 4

It was a relatively good week for bulls, with breadth continuing to improve for technology indices. The indices did close near the week lows, but losses may be overstated.

The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA fell just shy of the 50% mark, but still managed to add a few points from last week.

The Nasdaq Bullish Percents did scrape over the 50% mark, but it has been a very modest advance in this particular breadth index since the start of the Santa Rally. It would be good to get a but more 'oomph', but the spring/summer rally started under similar conditions, and it lasted a number of months.

However, the Nasdaq Summation Index made good ground. There is little to suggest the rally is about to end anytime soon.

The Nasdaq finished near the lows, but remains effectively range bound; 2,800 is support and 3,200 is resistance (with 3,100 minor resistance). On-Balance-Volume switched to a 'sell' trigger.

The Russell 2000 held its breakout, but looks like its ready to enter a couple of weeks of weakness.  It will be important breakout support holds,with 775 the last stand for bulls.

The S&P also looks ready for a period of weakness, but is at least in the upper range for a possible challenge of 1,474.  Key support looks to be around 1,350.

Despite modest point losses, it was a good week for bulls.  This week may see some additional downside, but the broader picture remains bullish.


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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the-World in the Trading Strategy Marketplace Leaderboard. The Leaderboard also supports advanced search capability so you can tailor your strategies to suit your individual requirements.

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