Monday, April 26, 2010

Weekly Review of Publishers' Charts; New Highs To Start The Week

With the final flourish to the end of week it was another tick in the endless bull column. Not much you can say other than the endless cut-and-paste of 'how much higher?'

For Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveelliotwave we are in the fifth wave higher for both the daily and weekly chart of the Nasdaq; no end in sight.

Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview still showing a relative mixed bag on the breadth front - certainly not enough to suggest a clear top. So look for another week of gains?

Automated strategy trailing the stop ever higher - no reason to be a seller

Already a top based on the following set of signals; but we have been here before

Note resistance in the S&P on the dailies with bearish divergences for supporting technicals; another cue to exit but will the majority take it?

But note the triangle breakout target of $51.48 for the QQQQ

Treasury Yields breaking out - good for commodities bad for bonds:

Richard Lehman of Trendchannelmagic offers his two cents, going for slope changes (higher) rather than confirmed channel breaks.

4/21 -- Channels on the large caps aren't hitting highs and lows with the usual precision right now, though part of that is the fact that the lines go off the charts. HOWEVER, the small caps show that the recent activity (including the GS-related sell-off) has been a slope change -- not a break afterall -- and that's why it's still heading up! The Naz short term charts show it best -- a perfect slope change on upper and lower points!

4/20 -- A strong two-day bounceback lends question to the short term breaks, at least for large caps. Small caps have not recovered quite so much and still point downward since peaking. The forces of interest free money still trump fundamentals here and every minor dip gets immediately bought. some downtrends such as oils and gold stocks persist, but the general stock population could not follow through. In any case, breaks of short term uptrends on the small caps offer at least yellow flags for the near term.

4/19 -- The short term charts have broken on both large and small caps, and today's bounce does not negate that. But the shape of a new downchannel is not universally apparent yet. I only drew in one possible red mini on the Naz hourly. Other than that, we need more data points. Meanwhile, the dollar remains in its uptrend and both oil and gold are slipping back down.

4/17 -- Start of something big? Perhaps, but so far the damage was well contained within existing upchannels. In fact , the short term channels were supewrb at catching the lows. As I mentioned Thursday, the froth was appearing in charts like small caps, financials and even SPX. That froth lasted but one day before sharply reversing on the Goldman news -- news that should have hit Goldman and not the general market anyway. But we know this is not a rationally driven market, so we'll just take it for what it is.
Michael Eckert of EWTrendsandcharts has labelled a narrowing triangle count for the S&P Daily, but this also means more upside to come:

Are we seeing a repeat of the summer of 2009? Keeps Grinding Higher - price and technical action very similar.

Finally, we end on a small - but significant - spot by Robert New of TheInformedTrader; weekly Wilshire 5000 RSI in the 70s (a rare occurrence). Same true for S&P, Dow, Nasdaq 100 (actually at 76.05), and Nasdaq (76.36)

But trend likely to continue higher despite overbought market

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