Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Markent Sentiment: Bull Cross or Bull Trap?

The recent rally has put a little bit of fire into breadth's belly. However, not all breadth indicators took the bait. The Nasdaq Bullish Percents is best placed with the bullish cross of the 5-day EMA as the Ultimate Oscillator worked a 'buy' signal from oversold conditions. Whether this evolves into a bull trap or a genuine 'buy' signal remains to be seen but it's a positive at least (and is still a good 5 points away from traditional bull market overbought levels).

I was surprised not to see a stronger technical response for the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA. Given we are near the highs of June the indicator shows 30% fewer stocks trading above this key moving average than back at the start of May when it peaked. This is a bad omen and a potential low risk short using June highs as a stop.

Buyer beware...(again)

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.