Monday, April 27, 2009

Weekly Stock Charts review from Publishers

Swine-flu will set the tone for today, isolating Friday's surge higher. How many bulls will be trapped by the weekend's events? Market is ripe for a top - will this be the event to mark it?

Yong Pan had a couple more bear signals to add but now there is considerably less green to help the market.

Short term SPY's managed a weak buy (not oversold enough)

Bearish wedge backtest confirmation on Friday?

Plenty of gaps to fill on the way down.

Tomas Leszczynski has a target price for the SPX at 785-790 (measured move down from channel - so this will change weekly).

Or will it be a head-and-shoulder pattern? Right-hand-shoulder c 740.

Seen better on the weekly chart (although I would slant the neckline down which would mean a second shoulder closer to March lows)

Anthony Caldaro views the current rally from March lows as an 'A' of an ABC. I'm still confused by some of the within labelling but if it plays out it means the next move down will be followed by a decent move up (but as part of a counterrally in a larger downtrend).

Richard Lehman is looking for a new uptrend but after the weekend's events I doubt it will hold true.

4/25 -- Many people are surprised by the persistence of the current rally, but the fact is that buying comes in on every dip and has kept the major indexes in their upchannels for more than 30 days now. The big drop on Monday took only the Dow out of its upchannel and it subsequently rallied back up to join the others. So, overbought as things are, nothing has broken trend on the short term charts. Barrons provides some insight with statistics that show how much money still sits on the sidelines and how many professional money managers are still bullish. They may end up being wrong about chasing stocks here, but they are driving things nonetheless.

The longer term picture is thus still very important. The small caps (Naz, QQQQ, and RUT) are all at or near their one-year lines. In the large caps, the Dow is right there, though the SPX has moved slightly above. Monday's sell-off clearly showed the effect of one-year channel resistance on the market, even though short-lived, and it continues to hold the market back. To continue upward, we would need to break the one-years and head for the declining three-year lines. While that would represent quite a feat after the rise we've had, there are probably a lot of people thinking that's where we're going, or they wouldn't be buying here.

The bottom line: 'It ain't over til its over', as Yogi said, and since we haven't broken the short terms yet, it simply ain't over.

Joe Reed has his week in review:

Interesting overlay of NYSE and S&P; note resistance:

Head-and-shoulder pattern?

All will be revealed in the next half-hour. Futures down but flat-lined since open. Hunch suggests a bull trap when a run will be made on the breakdown gap before it rolls over.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.