Australia update I

The next few days worth of postings will be coming from a rather gloomy Australia; regular posting will resume from next Tuesday (Hawaii time). The Fed kicked off the last two days of the 'Santa rally', and the first day of the New Year with news it may soon stop interest rate hikes. The injection of demand reversed what had been a poor start for the markets, but the buying wasn't enough to break through December resistance. The 50-day MAs held as support with the NASDAQ, Dow, S&P, and Russell 2000 closing above their 20-day MAs with only the NASDAQ 100 shy of this intermediate term support level. There should be sufficient demand to see a move to December resistance which would satisfy short term traders. Intermediate and long term traders need to wait for the last 4 weeks of consolidation to break to the upside on heavy volume before joining the fray. Tuesday's action was a step in the right direction, but interestingly enough it did not bring big changes in the secondary tech indicators [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ], with only the $NAA50 crossing above its 5-day EMA trigger line, and the $NASI and $BPCOMPQ actually declining.

Popular posts from this blog

S&P "Bull Trap"?

Image
I thought there was sufficient evidence to argue against a "bull trap" in the S&P, but it would appear the market wasn't interested in such thoughts and sellers were quick to reverse the initial push above 4,200.  Adding to the pain were new 'sell' triggers in MACD and On-Balance-Volume, although the former occurred above the 'bullish' zero line, making it a weak signal. Selling volume ranked as distribution as selling momentum picked up speed.  The index is also underperforming relative to the Russell 2000. 
Read more

"Black Candlesticks" are a concern for the S&P and Nasdaq

Image
A bright start for bulls on the back of positive $NVDA earnings wasn't enough to generate a day of meaningful gains.  However, it did help stall the losses of the last couple of days. The Nasdaq was the biggest beneficiary of today's action, but not enough to see an end-of-day finish that cleared last week's swing high, nor delivery of a large white candlestick, despite the morning breakout gap.  Technicals are net bullish and relative performance against the S&P has become consistently stronger since the start of May.  While today's candlestick I would view as typically 'bearish', today's volume ranked as confirmed accumulation (bullish). Overall, I would be looking for higher prices from here. 
Read more

Round 2 for the bearish "black" candlestick in S&P and Nasdaq

Image
The Nasdaq started brightly but ended up closing below its open price, but above yesterday's close. The S&P did something similar, although the intraday range is narrower. These two setups are somewhat complicated by the new 'buy' triggers in On-Balance-Volume for both the Nasdaq and S&P. And the new MACD trigger 'buy' for the S&P. Price action is key, so I would expect the candlestick to trump the technical picture; watch for lower prices tomorrow.
Read more

Archive

Show more