Posts

Weak Recovery Doesn't Offset Wednesday's Losses

Image
The selling we have seen had much in common with that of February's, and because of that, what we are looking at is the development of trading ranges which will maintain a neutral outlook until there is a breach of March swing lows.  The Nasdaq is perhaps the most vulnerable given prior strength, but it has started to underperform relative to the Russell 2000 as momentum moves into bearish territory but is not yet oversold. 

Indices suffer sizable downward opening gaps before rallying

Image
Yesterday was the warning shot, today was the follow through, but there was still sufficient latent demand to at least take indices near to where they finished yesterday.  While at one level we have breakdowns, if we take a step back we are looking at a return to trading ranges.  Tests of the 200-day MA are next on the list of major to-dos but it will take time to get there. 

Weak bounce for Nasdaq; S&P Breakout

Image
I wanted to see more from the Nasdaq support test but Friday's doji came in with a neutral 'spinning top' -  not the ideal candlestick you want to see off a successful support test. Technicals are mostly negative with a relative underperformance to the Russell 2000.  When you look the big picture, the current action in the Nasdaq lllo

Nasdaq holds rising trendline

Image
There was a big up in trading volume and today's action ranked as distribution, but for the Nasdaq it was not enough to deliver a loss of trendline support or its 50-day MA.  However, technicals are growing bearish with 'sell' triggers in the MACD, On-Balance-Volume and ADX - not to mention, a relative loss against the Russell 2000. 

Losses continue for Nasdaq

Image
The Nasdaq lost more ground to move further away from its 'bull trap' as sell triggers emerged in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume.  Relative performance returned to a loss against the Russell 2000 ($IWM) but this isn't a huge concern yet.  While the index did close below its 20-day MA it hasn't yet tested March breakout support. 

Nasdaq reverses breakout

Image
After edging a breakout last week in a move which suggested a new rally was about to begin, instead, the breakout stalled out and came back to its 20-day MA. The reversal came with a MACD trigger 'sell', although relative performance against the Russell 2000 actually gained - suggesting this is just pause in a larger move higher, but for this to be true I think it's important for the 20-day MA to hold.

Another low traffic day for the blog

Image
Markets do little, so blog traffic goes down. It's only when there is fear in the market does blog traffic spike.  Today belonged to the low traffic day. The Nasdaq was able to hold above breakout support as it works to clear the February swing high. Technicals are still net positive, although there was a relative performance 'loss' versus the Russell 2000. Nothing to get too concerned about.

Archive

Show more