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Markets poised for new round of breakouts

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It was day which left lead markets poised for fresh breakouts as they finished on resistance or just above resistance (now support).  The S&P ended the day just below the February swing high (around 3,130) as volume climbed in resistance driven profit taking (and also ranked as distribution).  Technicals, aside from relative performance, are all bullish and show no signs of divergence; so the expectation would be for resistance to breach. 

Markets Ignore Social Disorder

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Traders kept their blinkers on as Rome burned. There was very little reaction to the chaos across America, played on a backdrop to Covid19 and massive unemployment. Markets trade on the future, but this future feels a long way away in what was a blip of a trading day. The S&P edged a little higher as it made its way towards February gap resistance.

Strong finish on Friday for S&P and Nasdaq as Russell 2000 struggles.

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The week closed strongly with volume rising in confirmed accumulation across indices.  The S&P remained above its 200-day MA on increasing accumulation (rising On-Balance-Volume) as relative performance against the Russell 2000.and Nasdaq remained weak. The index remains on course to challenge the mini-swing high from February - a milestone already achieved by the Nasdaq.

Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks Above 50-day MA gets near 90%

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Interesting times for markets as breadth metrics which became heavily oversold in March are now becoming heavily overbought on the upside. Ultimately, the heavily oversold condition in March helped create the conditions for the rally - so will the heavily overbought condition go the other way? The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA is well above the peak from January 2020 - and the peak for this metric at any point since its inception; 84.67% was the last peak in May 2003 - but if you consider this, what followed in May 2003 was a continuation of gains for another 5 years, up until the credit crisis in 2008. 

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