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Dead Cat Bounce in the Trump Slump?

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These big reaction moves always seem to happen when I'm afk. Anyway, markets are attempting to price what impact the Coronoavirus will have in both the short term and long term, but after 10% declines we now have the dead cat bounce effect. I don't expect the bounce to last with a retest of recent lows likely, but this test could evolve into a slow decline - with buyers reluctant to step in until the impact of world events can be priced in, which is easily a few months away and potentially longer.  If you are looking for an exit, then the next couple of days could be critical. It's hard to see indices make it back to multiyear highs without a containment in the Coronavirus outbreak, so today's bounce seems artificial. The Dow Jones Index added 5% as it accelerates toward its 200-day MA on net bearish technicals. Relative performance remains poor (vs the Nasdaq 100) and until there is a relative advantage it's hard to see it sustaining a strong run higher.

Substantial Channel Breaks As Small Caps Hold The Keys

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The S&P gapped lower out of its rising channel, following the Dow Industrial Average in its channel break on Friday. The gap pushed below 50-day and 20-day MAs, but it hasn't yet triggered a 'sell' signal in On-Balance-Volume on higher volume distribution.

Dow Breaks Rising Support Channel

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell outside of its rising channel and into challenging the January 'bear trap'. It's the first of the lead indices to fall outside of its rising channel. Volume climbed to register as distribution with a MACD trigger 'sell', On-Balance-Volume 'sell', and ADX is on a 'sell' trigger. Relative performance remains very weak.

S&P and Nasdaq Recover Morning Losses, Russell 2000 Leads

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Volume has eased since markets broke clear of resistance to new all-time highs. The S&P did enough to tag both breakout support and its 20-day MA as part of today's correction. Technicals are all positive although +DI/-DI is on the verge of a bearish crossover.

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