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Daily Market Commentary: Modest Loss

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Yesterday's gains were a bit of a surprise given Monday's selloff in an overbought market. Today was a fresh opportunity for bears to launch another attack, but in the end a late day sell off was the best they could do  to push markets lower. Volume was also lighter. Tomorrow is another opportunity for bears to create an advantage with indices lurking close to support. The S&P is holding above channel resistance-turned-support. Nearest resistance sits at 1,260 and support at a converging (and rising) 20-day and 50-day MAs. Today's selling should lead to a test of these MAs before bulls show their hand. The Nasdaq has support at 2,616 with today's close was below that, but there is probably enough mojo here to consider it at support. A 'bullish flag' may be taking shape, although the volume pattern doesn't quite fit. If true, tomorrow or Friday should see a gap higher followed by a strong day. The Russell 2000 has been caught in the middle. St

Daily Market Commentary: Higher Volume Accumulation

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A good day for markets saw the end of potential 'bull traps' with some solid buying to negate the slight bump in selling volume yesterday. Small Caps saw the best of the buying with a rebound off the 50-day MA. If it wasn't for the higher open the day would have classified as a bullish engulfing pattern, but it was a good day without it. The next target is 731 resistance before there is a bit of room to the next resistance level at 773 (and/or 200-day MA). Small Cap relative strength did improve against Large Cap stocks, although not enough to reverse the trend against Tech stocks. Tuesday's rally in the S&P neatly bounced off support, ending the 'bull trap'. Volume climbed to mark firm accumulation. Next resistance is at 1,260. Bullish focus on the Nasdaq 100 didn't disappoint. The index remains nicely positioned to challenge 2,400 tomorrow and may even manage a new multi-year high by the end of the week. This is in stark contrast to the R

Daily Market Commentary: Friday Reversal

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An eight day rally with just a couple of modest down days was never going to last and Monday's reversal was of no great surprise. Bulls will take pleasure the selling volume, while heavier than Friday's, was still generally light. There is reason to suspect more weakness will follow, but there is plenty of support below to provide assistance. The S&P left with it a potential 'bull trap' as declining resistance (turned support) defined by September's swing highs was tested. A down-day on Tuesday will confirm - with shorts likely to attack from the open tomorrow. Technical strength is still good with relative strength swinging back in its favour and away from more speculative Small Cap stocks. Small Caps disappointed as relative strength drifted back into the summer malaise. Today's losses were heavier than most indices, although the 50-day MA is only a few points away and is possibly a point of support. Technicals still decent, if not as strong as othe

Weekly Market Commentary: Weeky 'Bear Traps'

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A solid week for indices saw market breadth take another significant step higher. 'Bear traps' on the daily timeframe extended in to the weeklies. It will be important indices push on to challenge the next level of resistance and confirm a swing low, a swing low to build into a "Santa Rally" later on in the year. Small Caps enjoyed the best of the week; the Russell 2000 finished the week up nearly 9%. The index is back inside the prior 'bear flag', but this should really push on to challenge 760 resistance (which so happens to be former 'flag' resistance). The Nasdaq finished the week at the top of its former 'bear flag' (now negated by the 'bear trap'). Technicals continue to improve with an on-balance-volume 'buy' trigger and a MACD trigger 'buy' likely by the end of next week. The next challenge is around 2,800 resistance. Helping the Nasdaq is a fresh technical 'buy' in the Nasdaq Summation Ind

Daily Market Commentary: Holds Yesterday Gains

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It was a decent day for all indices. Honors went to the semiconductor index as it added another 2%, taking it very close to a second challenge of 381 resistance. Technicals aren't yet overbought while relative strength has shifted in favour of it over the Nasdaq 100. Both are good signs this rally has more in the bag. ($SOX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq 100 pulled away from its 200-day MA, marking a new closing high and taking out 2,320 resistance to boot. The index is nicely primed to mount a challenge of July (multiyear) high. Buying volume could be better but don't fight the trend. ($NDX) via StockCharts.com The S&P had a quiet day. It had a weak finish on Wednesday which extended into a poor start Thursday, but by the close of business it had made back the morning loss. However, it closed the day on resistance. Technicals have just entered overbought territory, but given the strength of the rally it could remain overbought for the next couple of days. ($

Daily Market Commentary: Accumulation or Churning

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Bulls went to town and added another day of gains to this October rally. However, bulls were unable to push on from opening gaps. Volume climbed which may either rank as accumulation (because of higher prices) or churning (because markets closed at or below their opening levels). The S&P had managed to clear declining resistance in early trading but sellers returned to bring it back below resistance. Technicals remain net bullish while relative strength shifted back to the Russell 2000. The Nasdaq posted a 'shooting star' doji just below 2,616 resistance. This is likely to be a point where sellers take over for the next couple of days. The Russell 2000 pushed above its 50-day MA but technicals haven't done enough to turn net bullish (yet). However, Small Caps have taken a leadership role over Tech (and Large Caps). The index is back inside the quagmire of the prior consolidation so it's likely to get scrappy from here. The 200-day MA is the logical upsid

Daily Market Commentary: Tight Trading

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It was a quiet day in point terms but taking a peak under the lid revealed a far more bullish day. The first point of note was how indices were able to hold all of yesterday's gain and even add a little (for the Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq and Russell 2000). The quietest indices were Large Caps. The S&P barely added a point, but technicals continued to advance higher - there is still plenty of room for these to gain. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq finished the day net bullish with a slight uptick in volume (net accumulation?). The index remains on course to test 2,616 resistance. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com Strength in the Nasdaq was reflected in the Bullish Percents. Here technicals of the breadth indicator are net bullish with powerful bullish divergences in the CCI and MACD. ($BPCOMPQ) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq 100 got as far as its 200-day MA as technicals rolled net positive. This index remains the one most likely to challenge July highs. ($NDX)

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